Interesting article on Red Sox top prospect Blake Swihart. I didn't know he played shortstop in high school. Nor did I know he could throw 98 MPH in high school (rocket arm for a catcher). Even knowing all this new info - I'm still torn about whether Boston should use Swihart as the key to acquiring Cole Hamels.
Best case scenario - Swihart is the second coming of Craig Biggio, a catcher athletic enough to move to second base and center field. Biggio is a Hall of Famer - so this is a very high ceiling. Still - would I trade a young Biggio for a pitcher who might be the Jake Peavy of the last three years (low value return) or who could be the next John Tudor (who went 21-8 in his age 31 season). Probably I don't pull the trigger on a Hamels trade if I'm convinced Swihart is the next Biggio.
Still a good case scenario - what if Swihart is the next Rich Gedman (a power arm pitcher in high school converted to catcher)? Gedman played 13 years and was a 2-time All-Star. Do I trade a young Rich Gedman for Hamels? After serious consideration I probably do.
And as Rob Bradford points out - what if Blake Swihart is the next Jesus Montero who was supposed to be the Yankees' can't miss catching prospect? In that case absolutely you pull the trigger.
It will be interesting to see what the Red Sox do. I'm still torn on the question.
That is the thing about prospects. GM's know and most will admit that they almost never KNOW a player will be great. At best they have a good feeling a player's talents will allow him to hold his own in the majors. Until a guy does it in the majors he is an unknown commodity. I've seen the Indians trade stud major league pitchers several times over the last couple decades for can't miss prospects. Sometimes the can't miss prospect missed completely (Matt LaPorta) sometimes the throw in guy becomes an all star (Brantley). If Red Sox want to win now they add a known major league talent to their pitching rotation. And with $$$ they spent on offense they obviously want to win now.
ReplyDeleteI think Andy Marte would be the poster boy for Indians fans as a player acquired as a "can't miss" prospect.
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