The MVP Award and Steroids

This is an observation and not a scientific study in any way but I think one of the elephants in the room that isn't being talked about is how steroids testing has effected baseball and the MVP Award in particular. Consider that the top 5 vote getters in the American League averaged just 22.8 home runs. Only one player in the top 5 had over 30 HR. The 22.8 HR is a 41% decrease in HR from the top 5 vote getters from 5 just years ago.

That's an amazing change in numbers. Yet nobody seems to be mentioning it.

This is not a fluke - it's clearly a trend in both leagues. Here's how the top 5 vote getters have averaged in HR for the past 5 years (doubly significant in that Barry Bonds last won an MVP 5-years ago):

2008 - AL 22.8 / NL 33.6
2007 - AL 33 / NL 38.6
2006 - AL 37 / NL 43.8
2005 - AL 41 / NL 41.4
2004 - AL 38.6 / NL 43

I fully expect the AL average to go up next year but even if it goes up to an average of 30 HR from the top 5 vote getters - that will still be a decrease of 20% from the 2004 numbers.

Eventually the numbers will flatten out and you'll pretty much know what to expect from year to year. I just find it interesting that nobody seems to be commenting on this very obvious drop in the numbers and maybe what it says about the top players of the steroids era.