Monday, June 26, 2006

Odds on Who Will Be Democratic Nominee for President in 2008

Here are the latest odds on who will be nominated as the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2008 (odds via BoDog):

Sen. Hillary Clinton 2/1
Former Sen. John Edwards 4/1
Sen. John Kerry 21/4
Sen. Russ Feingold 7/1
Gov. Bill Richardson 17/2
Former Gov. Mark Warner 10/1
Sen. Joseph Biden 11/1
Sen. Evan Bayh 12/1
Former Vice President Al Gore 15/1
Sen. Joe Lieberman 17/1
Gov. Tom Vilsack 22/1
Sen. Christopher Dodd 26/1
General Wesley Clark 28/1
Sen. Barack Obama 30/1
Former Sen. Mike Gravel 35/1
Former Sen. Tom Daschle 40/1
Gov. Brian Schweitzer 40/1
Sen. Barbara Boxer 45/1
Rep. Dennis Kucinich 45/1
Sen. Blanche Lincoln 50/1
Gov. Phil Bredesen 50/1
Gov. Joe Manchin 55/1
Gov. Mike Easley 55/1
Reverend Al Sharpton 60/1

People with NO chance; Sharpton, Kucinich, Boxer, Daschle, Clark, Gravel, Dodd, Lieberman (too bad because he'd have the best chance of election) and Kerry.

Governors generally have better chances than Senators - so Mike Easley of North Carolina, Phil Bresden of Tennessee (even though he once lost an election to someone names Bill Boner) are longshots worth a look.

Governor Joe Manchin of West Virginia won't run because he's anti-abortion and has only held his office since 2004. If he does run it will be to make a statement and he'll have no chance of getting the nomination. Gov. Brian Schweitzer of Montana could be the next Howard Dean - pushing the early field far left but then falling by the wayside

Senator Blanche Lincoln could be a dark-horse Hillary Clinton without the baggage. Barack Obama should have better than 30-1 odds.

Of the rest of the favorites - I don't think Edwards has the resume (the best thing he has going for him is that he ran with Kerry) and I think Hillary has too many obstacles to overcome. I think Warner (10/1) and Richardson (17/) have the best shots.

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