Red Sox Woes

I apologize up front if this rant goes on tangents but some things need to be said and some things that may not seem related have effects on the recent causes of our woes.

In life and in business it is best to operate with a "fix the problem - not the blame" mantra. However, Red Sox fans find themselves powerless to fix the problem so it becomes almost automatic to "fix the blame". I guess I'm no different from the average fan because I do have some blame to fix this morning.

To support the argument I going to present - let me first point out that the Red Sox have just parted ways with Rudy Seanez.

Seanez was a failure for the Red Sox this year. Could people have seen this coming? Seanez pitched in 9 games for the Red Sox in 2003 and was a disaster. Yet Seanez rehabilitated himself in San Diego going 7-1 with a 2.69 ERA in 57 games with the Padres last year. When Seanez was signed - I wondered if things had changed but trusted the Sox front office knew what they were doing. I remember John Henry being quoted thinking that Seanez could be "our Tom Gordon".

About a month ago I noticed that Alan Embree was doing pretty well for the Padres this year. However, even with decent numbers - would anyone trust Embree back in the pressure of playing at Fenway? Do you think the Yankees would give him another shot at pitching in the Bronx? The answers are "no" and "no". Yet we gave Rudy Seanez another shot because his numbers looked so enticing. Why was that?

Red Sox fans had lots of hope for this season and for good reason. The Sox were better at 1st with Youkilis instead of Millar; better at 2nd with Loretta instead of Bellhorn; better at short with Alex Gonzalez instead of Renteria (at first it was assumed with at least the glove but the bat has been an improvement too) plus Curt Schilling was healthy and 26-year old stud Josh Beckett was acquired to be the number 2 and ace in waiting. What wasn't there to be hopeful about? Only 3rd (Lowell replacing Mueller) and center field (Coco replacing Johnny) were question marks.

However Robert Burns knew what he was speaking of when he wrote, "The best laid schemes o' Mice an' Men, Gang aft agley." That's the Red Sox right now - gang aft agley.

I look back at the 2004 championship team and I start seeing more and more luck involved. The current ownership was lucky that Dan Duquette made the deal for Varitek and Lowe. They were lucky Theo did not trade Lowe midseason for Clement as has been reported (the Cubs said no - so I have heard). They were lucky to get Ortiz. Lucky, lucky, lucky. No plan - luck.

Now I'm wondering if the Red Sox are relying on numbers and youth too much. Whenever you hear a defense of Theo Epstein not acquiring a player at the trade deadline you are bound to hear about Theo not wanting to sacrifice the youth and "the plan" for the future. That's great and I agree. How many Jeff Suppan lessons do you have to learn? However, then I read that Theo was willing to sacrifice Mark Loretta for Tiger flotsam and jetsam pitching and I start scratching my head.

Sure Dustin Pedroia is doing great at AAA but that's no guarantee of success at the big league level. The best case would be for Pedroia to match Loretta's output. The more likely result would have been a step down in the field and in the clubhouse where Loretta has proven to be a team leader. The bird in the hand quote comes to mind (and I know you have to break some eggs to make an omelet but you try your new omelet recipes in the offseason not during the last quarter of the season).

Where am I going with this? Well back when Theo first took over as boy-wonder GM he had experienced advisors to help guide him. Sure he had the number crunching from Bill James but he also had the "been-there-done-that" experience of Bill Lajoie. Since Lajoie has moved on to the Dodgers - that old experienced hand is no longer there I fear. The balance between the numbers and the real world "old time baseball" has shifted to the numbers. I see that as a problem.

If you disagree consider these three numbers - 4.77, 4.5 and 3. The 4.77 is the Red Sox team ERA which is by far the worst among playoff contending teams. The 4.5 is the number of games the Red Sox trail the Yankees by. The 3 is the number of games by which Bill Lajoie's Dodgers lead the NL West by. The numbers are related whether you want to believe it or not.

All the above said - I still haven't given up hope for 2006.