Saturday, August 26, 2006

Curt Schilling and 3,000 Strikeouts

I have two things on my mind this morning regarding Curt Schilling. The first is does 3,000 strikeouts insure his Hall of Fame election. The second is why does he keep losing when I bet on him?

First let me address the 3,000 strikeouts.

Curt finished the game last night at 2,999 strikeouts just about guaranteeing that his 3,000th strikeout will come during his next start at Fenway. When Curt gets to 3,000 strikeouts he will join a very exclusive club. He will become only the 14th pitcher to reach that milestone (with Pedro Martinez soon to be the 15th).

Just mentioning 3,000 strikeouts always makes me wonder why baseball people value 3,000 hits so much more over 3,000 strikeouts. Through all the years - only 13 pitchers have managed 3,000 strikeouts but 26 batters have managed 3,000 hits. Historically it is almost twice as hard to get to 3,000 strikeouts than 3,000 hits.

Consider that Wade Boggs is 24th on the all-time hit list and Schilling is 14th on the strikeout list. Are Boggs' dink singles more valuable than Schilling's strikeouts? (And if you don't think that Boggs was the master of the cheap single consider that both teammates Jim Rice and Dwight Evans had more total bases than Boggs - in fact the only player with fewer total bases than Boggs who also had 3,000 hits is fellow dink singles hitter Rod Carew.)

But Boggs won 5 batting titles you say. Well Tom Glavine led the NL in victories 5 times and he if he doesn't get to 300 wins he'd be considered a borderline HOF candidate right now. But Boggs had 7 seasons with 200 hits you say. Well Bert Blyleven had 8 seasons with 200 strikeouts - that hasn't gotten him a ticket to Cooperstown. (Also please note that Ted Williams never had a 200 hit season - would you argue that Boggs was a better hitter?)

To get to 3,000 - you would have to have to average 200 (hits or strikeouts) for 15 seasons. Why is it that we value the dink singles more than strikeouts?

When Schilling gets to 3,000 strikeouts he'll also have 200 plus wins and two historic World Series performances to round out his resume. Will that be enough to get Schilling into the Hall of Fame? I think so but I also recognize that Schilling has ruffled many feathers in the sportswriter's ranks. It should be interesting.

That brings me to the question of why Schilling keeps losing when I bet on him.

I bet on Schilling in his last four starts and the results have put a dent in my wallet. I thought that my reasoning was solid. It started with his August 10th start against the Royals. Surely the team stopper won't allow a sweep by the Royals? Wrong. Next up were the Tigers and I thought that Curt would rebound after his tough loss against Kansas City. Wrong. Next up came last Sunday's prime time outing against the Yankees who had won 3 in a row to start the big series. Surely Schilling would not allow the possibility of a Yankee sweep. Wrong. Then came last night. Yikes!

Schilling has pitched well in all 4 starts. Good enough to win but the win wasn't in the cards.

Now here's my dilemma - do I load up on Schilling's next start under the idea that he has to win sometime or do I consider myself Schilling's personal black cat? If I load up and he loses - then I'm the black cat. If I don't bet on him and he wins - then I'm the black cat there too.

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