Monday, October 12, 2026

Antifragile - It's Like He Predicted Drug Commercials

"Via negativa, of course (by removal of the unnatural): only resort to medical techniques when the health payoff is very large (say, saving a life) and visibly exceeds its potential harm, such as incontrovertibly needed surgery or lifesaving medicine (penicillin)... decision making based on payoffs, not knowledge...

And recall that under nonlinearities, the simple statements 'harmful' or 'beneficial' break down: it is all in the dosage...

...a cost benefit situation, usually results from the treacherous condition in which the benefits are small, and visible - and the costs very large, delayed, and hidden. And of course, the potential costs are much worse than the cumulative gains."

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