Osama's New Tape

So Osama has put out a new tape.

Many people are saying that it's a fake and that Osama has been dead for quite some time. Others are saying "It's October- surprise!"

I had been one of those who firmly believed that Osama has been food for worms and I actually still believe that. However, there is no arguing that a tape with a new message supposedly from Osama has been released. People are saying that the message has been released now in order to affect Tuesday's election. I think it was released now for a different reason.

On October 17th - Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was pledging allegiance and fealty to Osama bin Laden but just a few days ago Abu Musab al-Zarqawi proclaimed himself the new head of Al Qaeda. I think this tape was released now to refute that claim and to keep the power in the hands of those around Osama (or his corpse) instead of shifting over to the up and coming Zarqawi.

Al Qaeda is no longer the rich organization it was before the US went after their base in Afghanistan and their funding worldwide but it still has enough cash to make men greedy for control and for power. If Osama is still alive - he needs to reassert himself in order to prevent a power vacuum. If Osama is dead - then the people wielding power today want to protect that power from the likes of Zarqawi. What better way to reassert his power or prove that Osama is still alive than by releasing a tape?

One thing I would look for is for either Zarqawi to be betrayed or for one of his top lieutenants to be suddenly killed or captured publicly as a message (like this maybe? - or maybe this?). If there is a power vacuum - look for things to get bloody quick and look for the US Special Forces start to become very busy following up on the leads provided by one lieutenant selling out another with hopes of filling upward openings.

Why did Zarqawi pledge fealty on the 17th? Shouldn't that have been a given? Is Zarqawi staking a claim as "head of the family" as the new Al Qaeda Godfather? Like Joey Zasa? Or is he a loyal lieutenant like Clemenza?