Red Sox - Looking Back - Looking Forward

Here are the Red Sox thoughts that have been percolating in my brain.

I went on record saying that the key stats that foretold what would happen in the World Series were the pitching stats of HR allowed and strikeouts. Here's what I said about HR's:

First off - home runs. St. Louis allowed 169 HR this year compared to 159 for the Sox. This difference of just 10 may seem slight but it is more pronounced when you consider that St. Louis did not have to face a DH while the Sox staff did. Simply put - the Cardinals tend to give up more home runs than the Red Sox

In the series - the Sox out-homered St. Louis 4-2. The offenses for the two teams were basically equal - it was the difference in pitching that was key.

Here's what I said about strikeouts:

The second stat I would like to take a look at is strikeouts. Cardinal pitching struck out 1,029 batters this season. The Red Sox pitchers stuck out 1,132. Again this difference may seem slight until you consider that the Sox pitchers were striking out DH's while many of the Cardinals' K's included strikeouts by pitchers who have to bat in the NL.

In the Series - the Sox struck out 32 Cardinal batters compared with the Cardinal pitchers striking out 20 Sox batters (and three of the Cardinal K's were against Sox pitchers Pedro Martinez - 2 and Derek Lowe - 1). That's 12 more balls in play for the Red Sox than the Cardinals. That's a huge difference.

I'm trying to decide whether I want to go into the "rolling parade" tomorrow. Right now I'm leaning toward staying home. I'm not one of those guys who dreamed being at a Red Sox victory parade my whole life and honestly - I went into Boston for the last two Patriots parades and ended up watching the festivities from a bar in Fanuel Hall. I've never felt the need to be part of a crowd and there are a few good college games on tomorrow (plus the Breeder's Cup). I'm leaning toward staying home.

The Red Sox will be facing some tough contract decisions soon. Here's what I would recommend and what I would like to see:

- First off - exercise the 2005 option on Bill Mueller. At $2.1 million - this is a no-brainer. (At the same time - exercise the $2.75 million option for Mike Timlin.)

- Second - offer Pedro, Varitek, Derek Lowe and Orlando Cabrera arbitration. This costs them nothing and if any of the free agents sign elsewhere - the Red Sox would get draft picks because they offered arbitration. Offering arbitration also shows good faith on the part of the Red Sox in terms of keeping all these guys in Sox uniforms. The best possible scenario for the Red Sox would be for these guys to accept arbitration.

- As far as contract offers to the above players:

I would offer Pedro 3-years $36 million. I think this is fair and it also shows proper respect to a player who deserves to retire as a member of the Red Sox and get his number retired.

I would offer Jason Varitek a 3-year $24 million contract. Javy Lopez signed with Baltimore last year for 3-years $22.5 million - so again I think this would be fair. Varitek wants to stay here but he has Scott Boras as his agent - so that's a mixed signal. You have to ask who out there needs a catcher and who would bid over $8 million per year? I can't think of anyone. Nobody wants to tie up a big chunk of their payroll at catcher the way the Pirates have.

Derek Lowe may be best served by accepting arbitration and getting his numbers back to where they were in 2003. The Sox should offer a 3-year $21 million contract to the guy who is now a post-season hero. Also represented by Scott Boras - Lowe may be able to top that on the free market.

Orlando Cabrera turned down a 5-year $40 million offer from the Expos because he wanted to play for a winner and now he has a World Series ring. Maybe 3-years $24 million will do the trick. I would go to 3-years $27 million if need be.

Consider this - if you totaled up my proposed salaries for next year for those four players - it would actually represent a considerable savings over 2004 salaries (because Pedro was on the books at $17.5 million and the Sox had Nomar on the books at $11.5 million). The drop in salary for Pedro pays for the raises for Lowe and Varitek - meanwhile Cabrera is still much cheaper then Nomar even at $9 million per year.