Rethinking the Reds / Nationals Trade

I've been thinking about the recent Reds / Nationals trade and I've started to change my mind about it. Everyone (and I mean everyone) seems to think the Nationals absolutely fleeced the Reds in this trade but after careful consideration - I disagree. Let me make a few points.

1. Everyone seems to stress that Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez and Ryan Wagner were all former first round picks as if being a first round pick was a guarantee of success. Anyone who follows baseball knows that almost the opposite is true. Only a couple of players drafted in the first round in any given year even end up making it to the MLB level - never mind making an impact. This is a minor point and more of an indication of faulty analysis than anything - but please - BEING A FIRST ROUND PICK MEANS NOTHING!

2. The Reds will save significant amounts of money with this trade. Nothing happens in a vacuum and baseball is first and foremost a business. The Reds just saved about $1.5 million that goes straight to the bottom line this season and next year they won't have to give big raises to Kearns and Lopez. The money that would have went to Kearns and Lopez (probably about $7 million combined for 2007) can now be used elsewhere. Don't scoff at the $7 million either. For a team like the Reds that's slightly better than 10% of total payroll (for less than 1% of the 25-man roster).

3. Felipe Lopez is over-rated. He is supposed to be an offensive shortstop but this is what his numbers look like away from Cincinnati's bandbox:

Lopez road 2006 - .241 BA / .330 OBP / .364 SLG / .694 OPS
Lopez road 2005 - .277 BA / .335 OBP / .435 SLG / .771 OPS

Those numbers won't make anyone mistake Lopez for Miguel Tejada.

4. Austin Kearns may be even more over-rated. I'm starting to think that Kearns may just be the new Phil Plantier. Kearns is a young, power-hitting outfielder who is a local boy and who is very popular with the fans. He also is injury prone. That's the same description that could have been used for Phil Plantier. The Reds probably shipped him out of town partly because they don't want to have an arbitration headache with a fan-favorite player who may be fairly easily replaced with a cheaper player.

5. This is probably the most important point. The Reds' biggest need was bullpen help. This trade tries to address the biggest need for a team that is right in the thick of things in the NL Central.