Here's some more thoughts regarding the Yankees signing Jacoby Ellsbury to a 7-year $153 million contract.
1. Mickey Mantle finished his career with 153 stolen bases. It is not a stretch that Ellsbury will meet or exceed that number.
2. Reggie Jackson had 144 HR in his time with the Yankees. It may be a stretch but I think Ellsbury could meet or exceed that number too. Why do I think Ellsbury has a chance? Reggie had just 5 seasons in the Bronx and Ellsbury will have 7. Johnny Damon twice hit 24 HR in his 4 years with the Yankees and Ellsbury has more strength and power than Damon. Plus Ellsbury has a .906 OPS at Yankee Stadium over the last 3 seasons. He can hit there.
3. Supposedly Vegas has set the over/under for HR next season for Ellsbury at 15.5. For the reasons above - I love the over.
4. Rob Bradford makes a point I meant to bring up yesterday - Ellsbury will not pitch for the Yankees. As it stands right now the Yankees have the worst starting rotation in the AL East (Sabbathia, Nova, Phelps, Pineda and Warren). Pitching is their biggest need but they signed Ellsbury who is just an upgrade over Brett Gardner instead. Signing Ellsbury does not make the Yankees a playoff team.
5. The Red Sox will get a windfall from Ellsbury signing in the Bronx. Many of the women and children who were Ellsbury's biggest fans will now need a new Red Sox jersey. Just in time for Christmas.
I like the over on Ellsbury homers, but won't touch it. It seems the odds makers continually beg me to take the over, especially on long range props. Almost wonder if one could make a living just betting every under.
ReplyDeleteProps are always tough. A couple of months ago I would have bet the house that Cano would be back with the Yankees. Right now I'd be worrying about being homeless if I made that bet.
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