Wednesday, May 22, 2019

Joe Biden and China

With so many Democrats running for President it is inevitable that some of the candidates at the bottom of the polling will be taking shots at those at the top. And currently the one at the very top is Joe Biden.

You will see references to handsy, creepy Uncle Joe. Many will also be holding their breath waiting for the Biden gaffe machine to kick into high gear. But one issue that might be a better road to taking Biden down is his stance on China.

Senator Mark Warner (D-Va) the highest ranking Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee has no problem saying China is a threat. Joe Biden? Not so much.

China is posturing that they are prepared for a long trade war. But if Joe Biden is forced to change his tune on China because of pressure coming from the Left (Bernie Sanders also sees China as a threat) then that may change the equation. China may be thinking that they may be able to out-wait President Trump but if it looks like Trump will win re-election while the Democrats also agree that China is a threat then it would be in China's best interest to do a trade agreement sooner than later.

The anti-tariff folks say that it is the US consumer that is paying the tariffs not China. And they are right. What they don't include in their argument is the fact that instead of paying higher prices the consumers will soon look for alternatives. We are not talking about life essential products. We are talking about products that could easily be manufactured in Vietnam or some other nation with low labor rates. And once that manufacturing moves from China to another country - it's not coming back.

That's permanent damage to the Chinese economy. Instead of risking that China could instead acknowledge they need to have a fair trade policy with the US including promises to stop stealing IP (Intellectual Property). I think that's the most likely outcome.

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