Friday, August 19, 2022

China Might be at the Edge of an Economic Catastrophe

Disturbing analysis of the current economic situation in China.  The author does a good job of connecting various dots and all the dots seem to spell out trouble.

First take the fact that the "Shanghai Stock Exchange composite (equivalent to our S&P 500) has not yet recovered its 2008 peak, despite the Chinese GDP having tripled since then!" The Chinese seem distrustful of their own stock exchanges and instead put their money into real estate with "nearly 96% of the Chinese population having exposure to real estate and about 70% of national wealth tied up in real estate."

Problem is there seems to be a real estate bubble about to burst. Bigger problem is it's not so much a bubble as a Ponzi scheme. "Now like all Ponzi schemes, they continued to work until one day, they suddenly didn't." And that "one day" has arrived. 

The trouble has therefor spread to the banking system which has involved the government (which has been involved to a lesser extent all along). Add in rampant corruption and none of the news on the Chinese economy is good. Decouple now!

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