Tuesday, May 05, 2020

Thoughts on Musk World

Had two thoughts regarding Musk World that I wanted to share. First regarding Starlink; I had been skeptical about the logistics, business model, and efficacy of the Starlink satellites providing broadband services but I'm starting to come around.

The FCC granted Starlink 1 million licences for service in the US. One of the most recent proposals in Congress to close the digital divide in this country included funding for WiFi on school buses. There are roughly 480,000 school buses in the US. Let's say that School Districts accounting for 250,000 buses apply for and receive subsidies for the roughly $80 per month service. That's $20 million per month in revenue. What better way to get WiFi on buses?

Now let's assume for purposes of argument that's there's at least another 250,000 RV's and boats that are in remote areas or traveling cross country that would love to have reliable high speed Internet. With roughly 1 million living in RV's full time in the US this number is easily doable. Now that's 500,000 subs or $40 million per month in revenue.

There's about 2 million 18-wheeler trucks in the US - easily another 500,000 of them may opt for the pizza box sized receiver for WiFi wherever they roam. Boom - that's $80 million a month in revenue which should be enough to maintain the fleet of 12,000 satellites (when finished) meaning any subscribers outside the US becomes gravy. This is the thought process on why I'm starting to change my tune about Starlink. Haven't even mentioned the possibility of airplanes using the service as a reliable way to provide passengers with WiFi.

Now regarding Tesla. In a very short period of time Tesla has become THE car manufacturer in the world. May not be the biggest (yet) but they have become the bar against which all else have come to be measured. When you think of EV's (electric vehicles) a Tesla automatically comes to mind. How are the other car manufacturers or others new to the space to compete? A possible answer would be not to try and catch up with Tesla but instead to leapfrog them. How? Flying cars.

When Tesla first started they began with a high-end sports car - the Tesla Roadster which now sells for about $200,000. Porsche in a joint venture with Boeing is poised to come out with an autonomous flying vehicle. Other car companies like Hyundai, Rolls Royce, Aston Martin and others are also working on "flying cars." Other new entries to the field like Lilium are pretty close to offering product. And don't forget Google's Larry Paige is quietly amassing a "flying car" empire.

First the rich buy flying autonomous vehicles as status symbols (like they did with the Tesla Roadster) while taking a "flying taxi" becomes a hot new things to do - exposing many to the ease and safety (hopefully) of such travel. Suddenly there a whole new class of competition to Tesla that currently doesn't exist. Just saying but The Jetsons was set in 2062 and there were flying cars and robot maids - but no electric cars.

My two cents.

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