Bill James Playoff Predictor - Dodgers vs Phillies

The Bill James Playoff Predictor method has been very accurate in the past in predicting winners. Here's how the Dodgers stack up against the Phillies

1. 1 pt to the lead team for each half-game in the standings (Phillies 4)
2. 3 pts to the team that scored more runs (Phillies 3)
3. 14 pts to the team with fewer doubles (Dodgers 14)
4. 12 pts to the team with more triples (Dodgers 12)
5. 10 pts to the team with more home runs (Phillies 10)
6. 8 pts to the team with the lower team batting average (Phillies 8)
7. 8 pts to the team that committed fewer errors (Phillies 8)
8. 7 pts to the team that turned more double plays (Even)
9. 7 pts to the team that walked more batters (Dodgers 7)
10. 19 pts to the team that had more shutouts (Phillies 19)
11. 15 pts to the team whose ERA was lower (Dodgers 15)
12. 12 pts to the team that has been in postseason most recently or went further (Phillies 12)
13. 12 pts to the team that won season series (Dodgers 12)

Phillies 64 - Dodgers 60

Edge to Phillies

Bill James Playoff Predictor - Red Sox vs Angels

The Bill James (happy 60th birthday) Playoff Predictor method has been very accurate in the past in predicting winners. Here's how the Red Sox stack up against the Angels

1. 1 pt to the lead team for each half-game in the standings (Angels 4)
2. 3 pts to the team that scored more runs (Angels 3)
3. 14 pts to the team with fewer doubles (Angels 14)
4. 12 pts to the team with more triples (Angels 12)
5. 10 pts to the team with more home runs (Red Sox 10)
6. 8 pts to the team with the lower team batting average (Red Sox 8)
7. 8 pts to the team that committed fewer errors (Red Sox 8)
8. 7 pts to the team that turned more double plays (Angels 7)
9. 7 pts to the team that walked more batters (Red Sox 7)
10. 19 pts to the team that had more shutouts (Angels 19)
11. 15 pts to the team whose ERA was lower (Red Sox 15)
12. 12 pts to the team that has been in postseason most recently or went further (Red Sox 12)
13. 12 pts to the team that won season series (Angels 12)

Angels 71 - Red Sox 60

The Bill James Playoff Predictor does not bode well for the Boston Red Sox

League Championship Series

It's down to 4 teams and of course I'm rooting for the Red Sox to win it all.

Lyford takes a look at the match-ups using Bill James' playoff prediction formula and also Baseball Prospectus' "Secret Sauce" formula. Both systems point to a Red Sox / Arizona World Series.

Meanwhile Vegas seems to be pointing toward a Red Sox / Rockies matchup.

According to the lines at Bodog.com - the Red Sox are a -$170 favorite (risk $170 to win $100) over Cleveland at +$135 (risk $100 to win $135). The Rockies are a -$135 favorite (risk $135 to win $100) over Arizona at +$115 (risk $100 to win $115).

Keep in mind that the formulas Lyford highlights point to who will win the series. The betting lines are geared toward evening out the betting. Many people are jumping on the Rockies bandwagon because they have been so hot. Its tough to argue against that but Arizona clearly has the better pitching and they have seen Colorado a ton of times this year. I think the NL is a toss-up.

Morning Links

Some stuff to peruse over your morning coffee.

- Lylines looks at the Bill James play-off predictor system. I was thinking about this before the playoffs started. It's been remarkably accurate over the years. This year the system has the Red Sox, Yankees, Arizona and Phillies by just a smidge winning their series.

- Funny Halloween dealie from the past. Maybe its just me but I find this wicked funny.

- When I first started this blog - Pearly Gates was one of the first blogs to link to my stuff. Now that the Red Sox are playing the Angels - it's good to return the favor (and see the series from an Angels perspective).