The NL East

Right now the Mets lead the NL East by 2 games over the Phillies and 4.5 over the Braves. The Braves have basically owned this division since the leagues were split into three divisions. The last times the Mets won the East were 1988 and 1986 and like the Braves over the past 15 years - the Mets won mainly based upon superior pitching.

In 1988 - the Mets had a "big 3" of David Cone (20-3), Dwight Gooden (18-9) and Ron Darling (17-9). In 1986 the Mets rotation was unreal with 4 starters winning at least 15 games (and three of them sporting sub-3.00 ERA's). Bob Ojeda led with a 18-5 record, Dwight Gooden was 17-6, Sid Fernandez was 16-6 and Ron Darling was 15-6.

The Braves run of NL East championships have been accomplished mainly on the shoulders of their big 3 of Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz. Tom Glavine is now with the Mets and Greg Maddux is toiling away with the Cubs. Only John Smoltz remains in Atlanta.

To me the question of who will survive to win the NL East comes down to who will have the big 3 starters to pull ahead of the competition? The Mets have perhaps the top two starters in Pedro Martinez and Tom Glavine but who will be the third wheel? Steve Traschel? Its possible but not likely that Traschel will emerge as the third stopper in the rotation. Consider that in six years with the Mets - Traschel has lost 4 more games than he's won. I wouldn't expect a Ron Darlingish 15-6 out of Traschel.

Of course the Mets would have a much better chance of having that third stopper if they didn't trade Scott Kazmir, if Victor Zambrano didn't need Tommy John surgery, if Kris Benson's wife wasn't such an attention whore (necessitating the need to trade him) or if Jae Seo wasn't trade for magic beans.

To me the emergence of a third stopper for the Mets will have to come from either rookie Brian Bannister (2-0 with a 2.89 ERA in 5 starts) or Aaron Heilman - who should be taken out of the bullpen and put into the rotation. If either of these guys can become the third stopper - then the Mets will be tough to beat (also don't discount a trade for someone like Barry Zito of the A's).

The Phillies are putting all their hopes on the shoulders of rookie Cole Hamels who has made just one start at the MLB level. After Hamels - the Phillies have 2-1 Brett Myers and his 2.73 ERA followed by a bunch of guys with ERA's that range from 4.84 to 6.96. The Phillies are enjoying a hot run right now but I think their fade to the back of the pack is bound to happen due to their lack of top flight starting pitching.

That leaves the defending champs.

At the top of the rotation the Braves have John Smoltz and Tim Hudson. Smoltz is a money pitcher but Hudson is a bit of a puzzle. He's won 20 games but that was 6-years ago. His career ERA is 3.38 but 2 of his top 3 ERA's have come the past 2 seasons (strangely - his highest ERA of 4.14 came the year he won 20 games). I've never known what to make out of Hudson. Is he a Cy Young contender or an ace pretender?

Right now the third man in the rotation is John Thomson - who I've long been a fan of. Thomson also happens to be leading the NL in ERA with his 1.87 mark. He definitely has the makings of a third stopper.

As far as offense is concerned - it may surprise you that Atlanta leads the East in both team average and team OBP. The Phillies lead in SLG but with no pitching they just become the East coast version of the Rockies.

So all this has been is a long exercise just to say that I think the Braves still win the East this year unless Brian Bannister emerges as a stud rookie or unless the Mets trade for a number one caliber starter.

To be the champs - you still have to beat the champs.