Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

I thought the Patriots played "OK" on Sunday against the Packers. I think the cold affected Tom Brady's grip on the ball more than it did for Aaron Rodgers and was a bit surprised at that. What was disappointing was Stephen Gostkowski missing the field goal attempt at the end. Those 3 point would have meant a Patriots cover and I wouldn't have lost my bet on New England... Bill Cosby resigns from the Temple University Board of Trustees... Just a thought but I wouldn't put it past Billy Beane if he signed Billy Butler so quickly because he plans to trade him at the July trading deadline next season... He does look like an angry lobster boat captain... I wonder if Bill Cosby is on the UMass Board of Trustees?... Who knew? Great Britain was once great at hockey. They won the Gold Medal at the 1936 Winter Olympics... In his 2012 special Fully Functional Jim Jefferies tells a story about the Montreal Just for Laughs festival in which he describes opening for a comedian Hollywood movie star who was very "rapey". Given the stories that have come out about Bill Cosby - I wonder if anyone has gone back to Jefferies to ask him who the "rapey" comedian was?

Josh Beckett and Waivers

Here's something worth thinking about. It is my understanding that if a player like Josh Beckett gets placed on waivers and someone claims him - he has no choice but to go to that team (assuming the Red Sox don't pull him back off of waivers). Of course Beckett would have the option to retire but that would actually be better for Boston as they would be rid of him and his contract but wouldn't face the risk of seeing him succeed somewhere else.

Now I'm assuming that if Beckett gets claimed by another team then he would lose his 10/5 no-trade protection at that time as well. Wouldn't that make him more attractive to a team that likes to take risks? A team like the Oakland A's for example who just lost starter Bartolo Colon to suspension and whose GM likes to make deals. Beckett's peripheral numbers like HR rate are not as bad as his ERA would have you believe. If he did bounce back from a change of scenery then Beckett could also be a good trade chip at the trade deadline. Don't forget that just last year Beckett finished in the top 10 in Cy Young voting. And he's just 32 years old.

Maybe wishful thinking on my part but something to keep in mind nonetheless.

EDIT: Fangraphs asks Should Anyone Trade for Josh Beckett? They think the Nationals would be a good trade partner. I think Beckett would thrive in the NL East (at least for a few months).

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

Reggie Bush and Kim Kardashian are done. Maybe Barack Obama should invite Bush and Kardashian to the White House for a beer to help work out their differences?... Boston College's football team was picked to finish last in the ACC. I put $20 on them anyway since it would return $1200 if they turned all Cinderella on us. What's $20 compared to the bragging rights I'd win with that bet?... Excellent analysis of the Ryan Garko trade from the Indians to the Giants... This quote is so spot on: "I think the Obama administration has been spending political capital at roughly the same rate the federal government spends money. Eventually, it runs out," Paul Light professor at New York University. A similar sentiment can be made for Obama's TV appearances. Use them up all at once and they lose effectiveness. Spread them out and people will pay attention. Obama has been on TV more often than Billy Mays but without Mays' eloquence... Very good look at A's GM Billy Beane by ESPN's Howard Bryant... Maybe Wilpon and the Mets took so long to fire Tony Bernazard because Bernazard was the one who got Wilpon into Amway sales and Wilpon was afraid that it would affect his pyramid?...

Moneyball Indeed!

With the recent trade of Joe Blanton to the Phillies - the last of the players who were both drafted by the A's in 2002 and who subsequently were featured in Michael Lewis' book Moneyball are now all out of the Oakland system. Major League Jerk recently did an excellent Moneyball recap of "Where are They Now".

I'm not concerned so much with "where are they now" but two facets do interest me. What did the A's really get out of the 2002 draft? And how money really plays into moneyball. Let's take a look at the players who made the bigs to answer these questions.

Of the nine players drafted and featured in the book - three are still making contributions at the major league level. Those three are:

- Nick Swisher (16th pick overall) had three solid seasons for the A's averaging 26 HR and better than 82 RBI per season for those three years. Prior to this season Billy Beane traded Swisher to the White Sox in exchange for left-handed pitcher Gio Gonzalez, right-handed pitcher Fautino De Los Santos and outfielder Ryan Sweeney. It should be noted that Sweeney actually leads Swisher in several offensive categories this season including 3B, SB, BA, SLG, and OPS. That's not to suggest that Sweeney is as good a player as Swisher but the drop-off isn't really that, that much. Besides - the White Sox will pay Swisher $3.5 million this season compared to the A's paying Sweeney just $395,000 - plus the A's got two top pitching prospects in the deal.

- Joe Blanton (24th pick overall) was just traded to the Phillies for prospects second baseman Adrian Cardenas, left-hander Josh Outman and outfielder Matt Spencer. In his career for the A's Blanton was 47-46 with a 4.25 ERA. Blanton signed for $3.7 million this year and next year's contract is sure to be north of $5 million. That's for a guy who had exactly a league average ERA and who was one game over .500 for a team that was well over .500 in his time in Oakland.

- Mark Teahen (39th pick overall) never played a day in the bigs for the A's and now plays for the Royals. He will make a little more than $2 million this year. Teahen was part of 5 player trade in 2004 that in part sent Teahan to the Royals and Octavio Dotel to the A's. Dotel saved 29 games in a season and a half for Oakland but is widely regarded as an awful, awful closer. It should be noted that 15 of the 38 players taken ahead of Teahen never made it to the big leagues.

So what conclusions can we draw from this information? The A's had 6 first round picks in 2002 and 3 of those picks have turned into productive major league players. A 50% success rate for first round picks isn't bad (consider that the Pirates had the 1st overall pick and they chose Brian Bullington over such names as BJ Upton or Prince Fielder). The A's got 6 combined productive seasons out of Swisher and Blanton and then turned around and got 6 top prospects for them before the big money started kicking in. When they sold a prospect (Teahen) for a "proven" player (Dotel) it backfired. The main lesson of Moneyball was that the A's success was due to buying low on undervalued assets and selling high on over-valued assets. The prospects for veteran players (Swisher and Blanton) is just a continuation of that lesson and should lead to continued success for the small market A's.

Swisher to White Sox

The Oakland A's have traded Nick Swisher to the White Sox for 3 prospects.

I'm surprised by the move mostly because Nick Swisher was not only the face of the franchise - he was also signed to a very reasonable contract ($3.5 million next year, $5.3 million in 2009, $6.75 million in 2010 and $9 in 2011 with a $10.25 million club option for 2012). Compare that to Aaron Rowand's recent 5-year $60 million contract and you can see how much of a bargain Swisher's contract is and why I'm surprised the A's would part with him.

The Transaction Guy has a pretty good breakdown of the deal. My guess is that Billy Beane thinks he knows the ceiling of Swisher's talent and that Beane is hoping to get at least one prospect out of the three with a higher ceiling.

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

If Cubs right fielder Cliff Floyd is out for any period of time - you have to think the Cubs will be shopping for an outfielder. Jacque Jones has been awful this year. I wonder if Kenny Williams would be willing to deal with the crosstown Cubs and make a deal for Jermaine Dye? I doubt it. Brad Wilkerson may be available from the Rangers for the right price. I don't think the Rangers really want to pay Wilkerson next year's arbitration figure... Julio Lugo has taken some heat for his poor start but it should be noted that going into tonight's game Lugo has been hitting .321 in July with an .889 OPS (and as I type this Lugo is 3-4 on the night)... I think Billy Beane is going to have to pull off a major trade to kick start the A's if they are to have any chance at making the playoffs this year. They just can't keep losing games 4-3... Sergio Mitre is 4-4 with a 2.81 ERA this year in 15 starts for the Marlins. Do you think the Cubs still wish they had Mitre? Can you imagine the Cubs with Mitre and Dontrelle Willis in the rotation?... Many people are talking about CC Sabathia as a Cy Young contender but it should be noted that Gil Meche (who beat the Indians tonight) actually has a better ERA at 3.69 than Sabathia's 3.78...

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

Manny Ramirez needs just 8 more RBI to pass Joe DiMaggio for 40th place on the all-time list. Manny needs 10 to pass Harry Heilmann for 39th place and 11 to pass Willie Stargell for 38th place on the RBI list... Josh Beckett has improved to 6-0 on the season. Perhaps the biggest reason for Beckett's success this year is the fact that he has only allowed 1 HR in six starts. Last year Beckett gave up 36 HR in 33 starts. This lack of HR's is a function of better control. Last year Beckett had 2 strikeouts for every walk while this year the ratio is more like 5-1. True - Beckett is striking out about one more batter per start this year vs last but that doesn't explain the big jump in ratio difference. Beckett's 6-0 start is no fluke... The Oakland A's look like a team that is ready to fall apart to me.... If you're not familiar with Harry Heilmann - he's a Hall of Famer who is probably best known for winning 4 batting titles in seven years for the Detroit Tigers... That trade of Tim Hudson is looking pretty bad for Billy Beane and the A's right about now. Hudson has been the ace of the Braves this season with a 3-0 record and a 1.40 ERA while of the three players traded for Hudson - only Dan Meyer is even on the 40-man big league roster for the A's. That deal basically comes down to Tim Hudson for Dan Meyer and Brad Halsey (who was acquired for Juan Cruz who was one of the three players Atlanta sent to Oakland). Neither Meyer nor Halsey has pitched for the A's this season. The A's traded Hudson because they didn't think they could afford to resign him and yet the Braves were able to sign him to a 4-yar extension that pays him an average of about $12 million per year between 2006 and 2009 with an option for 2010. However, the A's could afford Estaban Loaiza at $7 million per year during the same period as Hudson's extension? It makes no sense to me....