Player Comparison

I was intrigued by a comparison of two players who have been in the news these past few months:

Player A: 2150 G/ 449 HR/ 1529 RBI/ .297 BA/ 149 OPS+
Player B: 2035 G/ 473 HR/ 1512 RBI/ .280 BA/ 138 OPS+

Player A recently was up for his first year of Hall of Fame eligibility and his lower than expected vote total upset many stats oriented folks. Player B is considering a comeback but has not played in the Major Leagues since logging 26 games in 2009. Of course Player A is Jeff Bagwell while Player B is Carlos Delgado.

I was surprised by how close the numbers were for the two players (except really for OPS+ which seems close but Bagwell is tied for 34th all-time while Delgado is tied for 83rd). What has me curious is whether Delgado will get close to the support Bagwell got. Heck he may even get more since very few have ever connected Delgado with steroids allegations while that has been a constant thought regarding Bagwell.

Like I said - I just found the comparison interesting.

Replacing Delgado

Jon Heyman took a look at some of the options for the Mets in replacing Carlos Delgado. Heyman mentioned moving Daniel Murphy to 1st and this is the move the Mets have announced they will be making. However, Heyman neglected to take the next step and suggest who would then be taking up the slack for the Mets in the outfield. Sure you can get away with a Gary Sheffield, Carlos Beltran and Ryan Church outfield but my suggestion is to bring up prospect Fernando Martinez from Buffalo to be the 4th outfielder and more importantly to platoon with the almost at the bottom of the hill Sheffield. You could have Martinez playing against righties and Sheffield against lefties. Sheffield is hitting just .159 against righties this season and last year he hit just .220. Why not give the kid a shot before trying to make a move outside the organization? At the very least Martinez would be a defensive upgrade. The Mets are just 1 game back.

So let it be written - so let it be done.

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

The Red Sox may have the best record in the AL but they still have a losing record on the road at 19-22. My guess is that by the All-Star break the Red Sox will have a winning record both at home and on the road... There is probably no bigger fans of Inter-League play this year then the Twins and the Royals. Both teams are 13-3 against their NL foes... Carlos Delgado had a huge game in the first half of yesterday's Mets / Yankees doubleheader. He had 9 RBI to not only set The Mets club record - he also blew past Mark McGwire on the all-time RBI list. Delgado went into the day in 65th place with 1409 RBI. He now has 1418 to pass Mark McGwire and his 1414. Next up on the list for Delgado are Luis Gonzalez with 1421 and Jim Bottomley in 62nd place with 1422. Delgado may catch Bottomley but I doubt he'll ever match Bottomley's record of 12 RBI in one game set back in 1924 (since tied by Swinging Mark Whitten).... Things can't be good for the Yankees if they are trotting out guys like Dan Giese and Sir Sidney Ponson to start games. Seeing Dan Giese get hammered by the Mets - I couldn't help but remember that he was originally drafted by the Red Sox (34th round in 1999). If the Yankees need outfield help does that mean they'll have their eyes set on Ben Marbury - the Red Sox pick in the 35th round of the 1999 draft?... Jim Edmonds has been reborn in Chicago. Since joining the Cubs he has 7 HR and an OPS of 1.001...

New York Mets

Recently I took a look at what contracts will be coming off the books and what the needs will be for the 2009 New York Yankees. It is interesting to note that the New York Mets will also have a lot of money coming off the books and even more interesting - their needs for the 2009 season will be almost exactly the same as the Yankees.

Here's the contracts coming off the books after this season for the Mets:

- Carlos Delgado has a $16 million option or a $4 million buy-out. Hmmm - I wonder which they will choose? Because the Marlins are paying $4 million of Delgado's contract this year - the Mets will only be saving $8 million toward the 2009 payroll.
- Pedro Martinez is in the last year of his contract which will pay him $11 million this year. The Mets may get a deal done to bring him back but I'd guess that's 50/50 so I'm counting this money.
- Moises Alou his $8.5 million will be coming off the books.
- Orlando Hernandez his $6 million will be coming off the books.

That's $33.5 million trimmed off the payroll. That also leaves the Mets with a big hole at 1st base and a need for another top starter.

To fill their 1st base need - look for the Mets to make a major push for Mark Teixeira. I'm guessing that Teixeira will ignite a bidding war between the Yankees and Mets with the Braves acting as the hometown discount darkhorse.

The Mets will also probably make a play for CC Sabathia but unlike the Yankees the Mets already have an Ace in Johan Santana. So I don't expect CC Sabathia to be the top priority for the Mets. Especially since they could bring back Pedro Martinez and still have a rotation of Santana, Oliver Perez, John Maine, and Pedro plus a couple of youngsters.

The need for a starter is secondary. This emphasizes the need at 1st and points to the Mets getting involved in the bidding for Mark Teixeira in a big way. It should be interesting to see what New York team will over pay for Teixeira because overpay they will.

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

How about those first place Marlins, Royals, Rays and Orioles? You have to love early season standings.... Dontrelle Willis gave up 3 earned runs in 5 innings yesterday on just one hit. Of course he left inherited runners who were driven in on a ground out and a single. Most telling was the fact that Willis walked 7 batters and struck out zero. I don't think Willis will fare well in the AL with a walk to strikeout ratio like that... Happy birthday to Framingham's Lou Merloni... Alex Rodriguez needs just 3 RBI to pass Mickey Mantle for 46th place on the all-time list. I'm sure Yankee fans have mixed feelings about that... If A-Rod's 3 RBI come on 3 solo HR - then he will also pass Ted Williams and Willie McCovey for 15th place on the all-time HR list. Of course any way the next 3 HR come from A-Rod he will still pass Williams and McCovey. I just like to think of A-Rod as a solo HR type of guy... Carlos Delgado is still the all-time leader in Toronto team history for HR (336), RBI (1058) and total bases (2786). Those numbers would only put him 5th, 6th and 7th respectively on the Red Sox all-time team lists... Kyle Snyder's time with the Red Sox is probably over. There are just too many teams out there who are desperate for a 5th starter for him to clear waivers... Nick Carfardo of the Boston Globe likened the situation of Mike Hampton to lottery winners who are beset with bad lucky after striking it rich. It seems like an apt comparison... It's worth noting that David Murphy (who the Red Sox traded to the Rangers in the Gagne deal) qualifies as a rookie and with his HR last night - he's probably the early leader for AL ROY. Murphy currently has an OPS of 1.180....

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

It will be interesting to see if Richie Sexson can turn the power back on this season. Sexson had averaged 36.5 HR in his first 2-years in Seattle but last year dipped to just 21 and his slugging percentage of .399 was 115 points below his career average. Sexson is in the last year of his contract so it will be doubly interesting to see how he does... Kevin Gregg is the highest paid player on the Marlins with his one-year $2.5 million contract. There are 16 players on the Yankees that make more than that... Johan Santana's contract adds a big burden to the Mets payroll but that should be lessened by the fact that potentially they have $41 million coming off the books after this season between Carlos Delgado, Pedro Martinez, Moises Alou and Orlando Hernandez. Of course some of those four players could be back in 2009 but I'm guessing that at least 3 out of 4 will not be with the Mets next season... It will be interesting to compare and contrast Sexson and Delgado this year as both big men are hoping to rebound from off seasons in their contract walk years... The phrase "throwing shit against the wall to see what sticks" seems to fit what the Nationals are doing at spring training. The Nationals seem to have 5 or 6 players vying for each position and the only 2 positions that seem truly locked up are 3rd (Ryan Zimmerman) and closer (Chad Cordero). Every other position seems like like it could be up for grabs and that's especially true for the starting rotation. At the very least it should make the intra-squad games interesting to watch... I'm rooting for Wily Mo Pena of the Nationals to have a big year. I always liked Wily Mo but he's got to contend with Austin Kearns, Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge, Ryan Langerhans, Rob Mackowiak and others for playing time...

Thoughts from a Long Drive

I had a long drive down from Massachusetts to Piscataway, NJ for some meetings the next few days in Basking Ridge. I thought I'd take the time while I wait for my room service food to arrive to share some of my thoughts from a long drive.

Not sure if you noticed the anniversary but it has now been 25 years since someone tampered with some Tylenol products which resulted in the deaths of 7 people in the Chicago area. Its been 25 years almost to the day and I don't think the killer will ever be found.

The number 7 stuck in my head and I know it sounds trite to compare the death of 7 people with blowing a 7 game lead with just 17 games to go but the mind sometimes works in strange ways (besides if you read some of the articles on the Mets you see words like "disaster", "devastating" and people sending out their sympathy to Mets fans). I was expecting to hear lots of Mets talk on 660 the FAN on the drive but football was dominating the discussion. I put on some music and thought about the Mets in the privacy of my rental Chrysler 300 (I got a free upgrade - thought I'd mention that just in case anyone from accounting reads this).

The people at Tylenol are credited with taking quick action to save the company division. They took the immediate hit of taking all their products off the shelfs and coming out with improved tamper proof products. They are now the #1 brand in their market. If the Mets want to return to #1 in the NL East they too will have to take immediate and maybe drastic action to come back better than ever (hopefully with a choke-proof product). If they fail to do so - then it could be a long time before the Mets sniff first place again.

If I were the owner I'd fire Omar Minaya. Its no secret that I think Minaya is a bad GM. What skill does it take to throw money and extra contract years at a Carlos Beltran or a Pedro Martinez? Of course Minaya won't be fired (but he should be). Willie Randolf will be a good manager and I think Jerry Manuel is a good bench coach for him. However, the first moves have to be to get rid of Rick Peterson as pitching coach and get a professional batting coach.

The next two moves I'd make would be to get rid of Carlos Delgado and Paul LoDuca. It will be easy to get rid of LoDuca since he's a free agent and easy to replace his "productivity" since LoDuca was basically at replacement player levels this year. Delgado will make $16 million next year but for the Mets to be successful they would have to sit him against lefties (.704 OPS this year) and also when he plays at Shea (the guy freaking has just a .680 OPS at Shea this season!). Delgado has to go. I wonder if Toronto would want him?

The Mets also have to decide if Lastings Milledge is ready to be an everyday player. If so then next year they have Carlos Beltran, Moises Alou and Milledge in the outfield. If he's not ready - they have to trade him for either a top pitching prospect or an established #3 starter. With Milledge gone - if Carlos Beltran is willig to move to right for a Torii Hunter or Andruw Jones - then Minaya should open the checkbook. If Betran will be uncomfortable then maybe Bobby Abreu is the fallback. However, will Abreu be a big upgrade over Milledge?

Two things to mention about the drive down. For about 10 miles I was behind this Jaguar in the left hand lane when I noticed that the license plate was XXX-LVR. The inside of the car was dark and with the high head rest it was impossible to tell whether it was a guy or a girl driving. If it was a guy - that's a creepy license plate. I hit some traffic in Bridgeport and lost sight of the Jag so I guess I'll never know.

The other thing to mention is that as I crossed over the George Washington Bridge into New Jersey - I sang "Happy Birthday to You" since the bridge opened on this day in 1931. I know that its a strange thing that I actually knew that fact and would sing the song to a bridge. That's just how I am.