Showing posts with label Pat Caddell. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pat Caddell. Show all posts

Sunday, October 28, 2012

Presidential Election Prediction

Mitt Romney is going to win by a landslide on November 6th. He is going to win for 3 main reasons:

1. He has the Republican base energized. They not only will come out in large numbers but are also acting now doing the ground-game get out the vote grunt work.
2. Romney is winning the independent vote mainly based upon his economic arguments and plans. People aren't stupid. They see that the policies of the past 4 years are not working.
3. The above two reasons would give Romney a win but not a landslide. What will give Romney a landslide will be Democrats refusing to vote for Obama. Again some of this will be based upon economic policies but I think many will refuse to pull the lever because of the way the deaths of Ambassador Stevens and three other Americans in Benghazi was handled. I think the revulsion shown by Democrat pollster Pat Caddell in this video clip is shared by many informed Democratic voters.

When the post election postmortem is done I think the numbers will show that in state after state many more Democrats voted for the federal offices of Senator or Congressman than voted for the Democrat at the top of the ticket. These folks may not vote for Mitt Romney but by not voting for Barack Obama they will be widening the gap which will be the difference between a slim victory and a landslide.