Could 1978 be Replayed this Year?

Greg asked a question in the comments to my last post. Seems that he has some Yankee friends who keep bringing up 1978 in response to him pointing out the Red Sox have a 13.5 game lead. Greg wants to know how to respond to these "friends" who keep bringing up 1978.

Let me first point out that it is possible that the Red Sox could collapse and we could see a repeat of 1978. However, that is highly, highly unlikely for the following reasons:

1. In 1978 the Yankees finished 37 games over .500 for the season (100-63) but 33 of those wins over .500 came from two starters - Ron Guidry (an incredible 25-3 with a 1.74 ERA) and Ed Figueroa (who went 20-9 with a 2.99 ERA). The Yankees don't have a pitcher this year capable of a Guidry-like season on their roster. Heck - they don't even have a pitcher who can win 20 like Ed Figueroa.

2. After August 1 in 1978 the Yankees went a blistering 42-17 (for a winning percentage of .712). Even if the Red Sox went just .500 for the rest of the way this year - they would finish with 91 wins. For the Yankees to match the Red Sox by the end of the season - they would have to go 69-42 (a winning percentage of .622). If the Red Sox just go 8 games over .500 the rest of the way (59-51 - a very conservative estimate) - then the Yankees would have to play .700 ball for the rest of the season just to catch them. It was historic when the Yankees were able to do that for 2 months in 1978. They would have to double what they did down the stretch in 1978 to catch this year's Red Sox. And they would have to do that without a Ron Guidry-type pitcher (or even an Ed Figueroa 20-game winner-like pitcher).

Not going to happen.