Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

An interesting "what if"? In 2007 the Red Sox considered trading Jon Lester to the White Sox for Mark Buehrle. If Boston signed Buehrle long-term would they have won the World Series in either 2007 or 2013? Could they have won more?... If you think about it - shoplifting food is both hunting and gathering... Our incredible solar system 1 - view of Venus transiting in front of the Sun... Jon Lester since 2007 has been 109-70 while Mark Buehrle has gone 99-71... Bill Lear, founder of the Lear Jet Corp., named his daughter Shanda. Yup - Shanda Lear... Our incredible solar system 2 - view of Saturn eclipsing the Sun... If MSNBC ran re-runs of Seinfeld it would be their highest rated show by a wide margin... I have grey hair and self-identify as a wizard. Call me Gandalf... Since 2007 Jon Lester has made roughly $63 million while Mark Buehrle has made about $110 million. I guess the "what if" wasn't as interesting as I originally thought.

Blue Jays / Marlins Megadeal

Here's my take on last night's Blue Jays / Marlins megadeal.

Deals like this don't happen in a vacuum. To understand why the deal happened and who would be the winner and loser from this deal you have to understand the surrounding circumstances. The Marlins finished last in the NL East in 2012 with the big contracts of Josh Johnson, Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and John Buck. Chances are at worst they can finish last without those big contracts. The Blue Jays' record wasn't much better than the Marlins (73 wins vs 69) but you have to understand that GM Alex Anthopoulis just allowed their manager John Farrell to move over to division rival Red Sox. Anthopoulis had to make a big splash to make a run this year because if Farrell leads Boston to a better record than Toronto this year Anthoupilis would be sure to be asked why he allowed Farrell to move on. The Yankees are the Yankees but Blue Jay fans have to ask why division rival Baltimore became a playoff team in the same time frame that Anthopoulis was running the team with Toronto languishing at just 73 wins.

The circumstances were right for a big deal.

The Marlins get back a number of prospects plus potential headcase Yunel Escobar. Trent Rosecrans of CBS Sports has a good rundown of what the Marlins will be getting in the trade. It is entirely possible that someone will sit Escobar down and tell him this could be his last chance to be a name player in MLB. If his head is screwed on straight Escobar could equal Jose Reyes contribution for the Marlins at a much reduced price tag. If Escobar doesn't toe the line - then he's a one year headache. In Buehrle and Johnson the Marlins are losing a total of 62 starts at a little better than league adjusted average ERA - it doesn't sound so impressive when you put it like that does it?

The real gem for the Blue Jays in this deal is Josh Johnson who will be in both the second year after Tommy John surgery and his free agent walk year. That's a recipe for a Cy Young type season in the making. Mark Buehrle is a glorified 3rd started in the AL East and Jose Reyes is a player whose game is based upon speed but who will be playing his home games now on an artificial surface and whose contract will end when he's 34 or 35 years old.

If Johnson wins 20 games next year people will say Anthoupolis won this deal but long term I think this is better for the Marlins. If Vegas set the over / under for wins for Miami at 69 then I'd bet that a combination of misfit toys and young players will actually do better than the high salary 2012 team. Jeff Loria will get lots of heat for this deal but it was the right move for his team (and yes - his pocketbook - not arguing that factor in the deal).

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

The over has gone 11-1-2 in the first 14 MLB games of the season. Each year I tell myself that I'm going to take the underdogs in each game of the NCAA Men's basketball tournament and the over in each game on Opening Day. Each year I fail to do so and leave money on the table... This would have been better than the real movie... The Braves Jason Heyward's nickname should be Hot Damn! Combines Hotlanta and what you say every time he's at bat. Jay Hey Kid just doesn't do it for me... So Marc Bulger's wife gives birth to a baby girl on Sunday and he wakes up feeling good on Monday because it's his birthday and then BAM! he gets cut by the Rams. Couldn't the Rams have waited a day so as to not cut a guy on his birthday?... Marlin is still the plural of Marlin (i.e "I caught several marlin") - right? Then why do people call them the Marlins?... Omar Vizquel needs one hit to reach 2,673 and tie Luis Aparicio for 2nd most hits by a shortstop in history (Jeter is 1st with 2,731 and counting). You would think that Cal Ripken would be in the top 3 but he spent his last few seasons as a 3rd baseman... Silver lining for Cleveland fans; even though Mark Buehrle dominated your team yesterday the Indians are still the only AL team Buehrle has a losing career record against (12-14)... People who make me immediately change the channel; Rick Reilly, Dan Shaughnessy and Colin Cowherd... When the Patriots traded Matt Cassell people were upset they didn't net a higher draft pick but New England got the 34th pick of the draft while the Eagles just got the 37th in exchange for Donovan McNabb. Not sure if this says something about the Patriots or about Donovan McNabb or both... The most interesting man in the world circa 1900...

Pick of the Day

Tonight's pick of the day (POTD) is the White Sox with Mark Buehrle starting against the Indians with Jeremy Sowers. Chicago is a -$153 favorite which is a much better price than the Red Sox -$260 (should be a lock with Beckett pitching).

Buehrle is in a 11-1 / 2.38 ERA stretch pitching at home. The White Sox are hot lately (7-3 in their last 10) and hot when Buehrle pitches (12-4 in his starts this year). Buehrle is also 6-0 pitching at night this season. Meanwhile Jeremy Sowers has never been able to beat the White Sox (0-5 with a 6.23 ERA in 6 career starts vs Chicago).

All signs point to the White Sox.

That doesn't mean that I'm over confident though. Baseball is still baseball and all signs pointed to a Colorado victory last night and while they did win - they needed some luck to pull out a 1-0 W.

POTD record - 9-3 and plus a mythical $553

Mark Buehrle to the Red Sox

There have been reports in Chicago papers that Mark Buehrle may be dealt to the Red Sox. As Lee Corso would say, "Not so fast my friend."

The Chicago papers would have you believe the trade would be something like Jon Lester for Mark Buehle. While it is true that Mark Buehrle is the type of player the Red Sox hope Jon Lester would develop into - why would the Red Sox give up years of the 23-year old Jon Lester for just 3 months of the 28-year old Buehrle?

As Tony Massarotti points out - the Red Sox hold most of the cards in this negotiation. The Red Sox hold a number of chips besides Lester such as Kason Gabbard who will be showcased this week as he takes over Curt Schilling's spot in the rotation or Devern Hansack who has a 3.19 ERA and 71 strikeouts in 73 innings from 12 AAA starts this season. Hansack is 29-years old and needs a chance to show he can play at the MLB level.

Also don't forget reliever Craig Hansen who was highly touted coming out of college but hasn't been stellar for the Red Sox. Maybe he would benefit from a change of scenery?

The Red Sox want to get Buehrle not just because he could help the team down the stretch but also to keep him from other playoff-bound American League teams. He could be the biggest difference maker available at or before the trade deadline. I mean even Dontrelle Willis wouldn't have as much impact for an AL team as the already acclimated Buehrle.

The big problem with the White Sox is not pitching but offense. This year they just suck at the plate. Now I'm not saying that he'd be the answer to what ails the White Sox offense but I am saying that the White Sox should consider a swap for Willy Mo Pena who is still just 25-years old. The White Sox potentially could lose all of their starting outfielders to free-agency this winter. Getting a guy who has hit a HR every 18 at bats in his career and who could be plugged into any of the three outfield slots should be appealing to the White Sox.

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.

I keep forgetting that Mark Buehrle is going to be a free agent - Scott Miller reminded me this morning. The White Sox already have Jon Garland, Javier Vazquez and Jose Contreras under contract for next season (plus Mike MacDougal who could be a starter). They also have 22-year old John Danks. I wouldn't be too surprised if the bidding was too much and if the White Sox just let Mark Buehrle go and instead spent their dollars on a top centerfielder like Ichiro, Andruw Jones or Torii Hunter (although Hunter has never played well at US Cellular Field). Centerfield has been a problem for the White Sox since they traded away Aaron Rowand. Of course it would also make perfect sense to spend the money they save on not signing Buerhrle to simply bring back Aaron Rowand... Bartolo Colon will also be a free agent at the end of this year. I have long thought that Colon was one of the most over-rated pitchers in baseball and that Tim Wakefield has been one of the most under-rated. It bothers me that Wakefield will probably be pitching for less than a third the salary of what Colon will make in free-agency... The White Sox have six regular players who have 85 or more at bats. When you consider that these six players are hitting a combined .228 - its amazing the White Sox have managed to be at .500...