Blue Jays / Marlins Megadeal

Here's my take on last night's Blue Jays / Marlins megadeal.

Deals like this don't happen in a vacuum. To understand why the deal happened and who would be the winner and loser from this deal you have to understand the surrounding circumstances. The Marlins finished last in the NL East in 2012 with the big contracts of Josh Johnson, Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and John Buck. Chances are at worst they can finish last without those big contracts. The Blue Jays' record wasn't much better than the Marlins (73 wins vs 69) but you have to understand that GM Alex Anthopoulis just allowed their manager John Farrell to move over to division rival Red Sox. Anthopoulis had to make a big splash to make a run this year because if Farrell leads Boston to a better record than Toronto this year Anthoupilis would be sure to be asked why he allowed Farrell to move on. The Yankees are the Yankees but Blue Jay fans have to ask why division rival Baltimore became a playoff team in the same time frame that Anthopoulis was running the team with Toronto languishing at just 73 wins.

The circumstances were right for a big deal.

The Marlins get back a number of prospects plus potential headcase Yunel Escobar. Trent Rosecrans of CBS Sports has a good rundown of what the Marlins will be getting in the trade. It is entirely possible that someone will sit Escobar down and tell him this could be his last chance to be a name player in MLB. If his head is screwed on straight Escobar could equal Jose Reyes contribution for the Marlins at a much reduced price tag. If Escobar doesn't toe the line - then he's a one year headache. In Buehrle and Johnson the Marlins are losing a total of 62 starts at a little better than league adjusted average ERA - it doesn't sound so impressive when you put it like that does it?

The real gem for the Blue Jays in this deal is Josh Johnson who will be in both the second year after Tommy John surgery and his free agent walk year. That's a recipe for a Cy Young type season in the making. Mark Buehrle is a glorified 3rd started in the AL East and Jose Reyes is a player whose game is based upon speed but who will be playing his home games now on an artificial surface and whose contract will end when he's 34 or 35 years old.

If Johnson wins 20 games next year people will say Anthoupolis won this deal but long term I think this is better for the Marlins. If Vegas set the over / under for wins for Miami at 69 then I'd bet that a combination of misfit toys and young players will actually do better than the high salary 2012 team. Jeff Loria will get lots of heat for this deal but it was the right move for his team (and yes - his pocketbook - not arguing that factor in the deal).

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

Just saying but if I wanted to kill an ex-NFL player - I'd shoot them in the chest at close range. Right now everyone would just assume it was a suicide on the part of the player... Bill Belichick on the red carpet at the Kentucky Derby. I love Belichick but man does he look goofy here... Michael Bowden has a 2.70 ERA since joining the Cubs. Is it me or could the Red Sox use a reliever like that?... The owner of I'll Have Another got a little over $1.4 million for yesterday's win. The jockey got 10% of that - so a little over $140,000. A caddy for a winning golfer in one of the four majors probably makes more than that... I love this story about Jeff Francoeur buying a round of beers and it makes me like him all the more. The sad thing is even though he could easily afford to do this every game - if he did it people would come to expect it and feel entitled to it. Best to do it every once and a while as a surprise for the fans... Elementary kids in my neighborhood are selling light-bulbs for a school fundraiser. Is this like kids selling apples in the Great Depression? Under Obama are light-bulbs now luxury items like magazine subscriptions or chocolate candy bars?... Cool - an octopus dining on sea gulls... What's up with Marlins pitcher Josh Johnson? He should be a Cy Young contender but instead he's pitching like he's the second coming of John Wasdin... Finally saw the movie In Bruges and I liked it so much I immediately watched it a second time. Two big thumbs up...

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

It should be noted that the Patriots have now won 10 games in a row. The last team to beat them was actually the New York Giants... Had a dream last night that the Red Sox made a huge trade with the Marlins for Josh Johnson. I hope that dream comes true... Gov. Chris Christie calls Newt Gingrich an embarrassment to the Republican Party and I agree... So where does Rex Ryan watch the Super Bowl? No network would want him because how would he be able to answer the question of how do you beat the Patriots or the question of how to beat the Giants. Gasbag... I wonder if on the show Blue Bloods they ever show Tom Selleck and a sandwich and waterfall in the same scene. That would be a special episode... I wonder if Tiki Barber still thinks Eli Manning lacks leadership skills?... Definition of badass... So is Brian Orakpo banging the Geico cavemam? That's the takeaway I get seeing the caveman in the locker room in a cheerleader outfit... Just saw a guy with a "Will Work for Food" sign who looked just like Craig Kilborn. Pretty sure it wasn't him... I have a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach that the Red Sox trading both Marco Scutoro and Jed Lowrie will lead to a desperation move of switching Dustin Pedroia to shortstop. I also wouldn't be surprised if Ben Cherington's next move is to trade Mike Availes for another middle reliever.

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

Yesterday would have been Phil Hartman's 63rd birthday. He's perhaps the most under-rated member of SNL's long history. Here's a link to some of his classic sketches... It occurred to me that Obama's new Buffett Tax will impact not just "millionaires and billionaires" but anyone making over $250,000 per year. I will assume that billionaire Warren Buffett's secretary is pretty well paid. I'd guess she would even be in the over $250k crowd. So in essence - Barack Obama will be raising her taxes so chances are she will still be paying a higher rate than her boss. Happy secretaries day honey... Who knew? Until just recently it was illegal to sell Sangria in California. What a perfect example of stupid government regulations... I wonder if the Marlins will try to trade Josh Johnson in the offseason? Johnson is coming off injuries that cost him most of the 2011 season and next year he is scheduled to be paid $13.75 million. He's under contract for both 2012 and 2013 so a team should be willing to give up some top prospects. When healthy Johnson is among the best pitchers in the game. This is worth keeping an eye on... JRR Tolkien, Hobbits and beer... Perhaps my favorite quote from the GOP debate the other night: "Yo gay guy in the military I'm gonna let you finish but DADT was one of the best military policies of all-time" - Rick Santorum... I love history like this. The time Notre Dame played the New York Giants to help the unemployed...

Payton Award Watch

I readily admit that originally I was going to post about the injustice of Holy Cross JR QB Dominic Randolph still not being included in the Payton Award Watch list even after another stellar performance this week - 24 of 35 for 298 yards and 2 TD while rushing for another TD. As I've mentioned before - Randolph is 6th in the nation in 1-AA in passing yards and all but 2 of the players ahead of him have had an extra game.

However, when looking into the numbers to make the case for Randolph I became blown away by the numbers for Josh Johnson of the University of San Diego.

I know that the University of San Diego occupies a strange place where technically they are Division 1-AA but because of their schedule and non-scholarship status they really occupy a netherworld between 1-AA and Division 2. Say what you want about the program but the performance of starting QB Josh Johnson has been Bradyesque. In 5 games Johnson has completed 75% of his passes for 1,603 yards with 23 TD and ZERO interceptions. Yikes!

Payton Award Notes: Herb Donaldson, the RB from Western Illinois had a statement game against Missouri State rushing for 314 yards to go over 1,000 yards for the season with 4 games remaining... Not for nothing but Dominic Randolph is more deserving to be on the Payton Award watch list than Luke Drone the QB from Illinois State or Jerome Felton the RB from Furman to name just 2. I could name half the list... Mike McLeod the RB from Yale may be the front-runner for the award and I couldn't argue much about that. He can take over a game like perhaps no other runner in 1-AA...