Billion Dollar IPO's

I read an interesting post this morning over at The Conglomerate (HT Instapundit) in which the main point is that Sarbanes-Oxley is not a main problem in "improving the competitiveness of America's capital markets." What caught my eye was this:

Two key measures of this loss [in competitive edge] are (1) the decline in the US share of IPOs (in terms of value, a fall from 50% in 2000 to 5% in 2005 and in terms of numbers, a drop from 37% in 2000 to 10% in 2005) and (2) the increase in going private transactions.

It is the first part regarding the decline in IPO's that interests me.

A start-up company basically has three "end-game" paths it can take; it can look to become acquired, it can remain private or it can go IPO (Initial Public Offering). After the tech-bubble burst most companies either tread the first two paths or have been in sort of a holding pattern waiting for the market to return for IPO's. When read in context you understand that the 50% in 2000 was the bubble burst and the 5% in 2005 was from people being extra cautious. Now it looks like IPO's are back and that is very good news for the economy.

Most people are aware of the $1.6 billion acquisition of YouTube by Google but what seems to have flown under the radar is two recent billion dollar IPO's by two relatively small tech companies - Riverbed Technologies and ACME Packet. These two IPO's have sent mild shockwaves through the venture capital community and seem to signal a return of the IPO market. And that's good news for the economy and especially to people who work at start-up firms.

With more companies soon going the IPO route because of the success of Riverbed ($2 billion market cap) and ACME Packet ($1 billion market cap) - fewer companies will go private which means that the two main problems identified by the Committee on Capital Markets Regulation are in the process of righting themselves.

How to Fix the BCS Mess

So with the loss by USC – the BCS is in chaos and no matter who is chosen to play there will be lingering controversy well after the championship game on January 8th is finished. The way I see it – there are two main problems with the current arrangement.

1. The championship is not guaranteed to be decided on the field. There are too many scenarios which could lead to controversy and every year we find a new one.

2. The traditional value of a good season being rewarded by going to a bowl game and January 1st as a national day of football glory has been debased by too many bowls, TV networks spreading games out over several weeks and corporate sponsorship debasing the name value of the traditional big games (I can’t even tell you what the official names of the Sugar and Cotton Bowls are any more).

What I suggest is the following:

1. After championship Saturday – take the top 8 teams in the BCS rankings and put them into 4 bowls on January 1st. Note – it’s the top 8 teams period. No automatic births for any conference champions.

2. On the following Saturday (making sure there is at least one calendar week in between) – two more bowls are played matching the winners of the previous games. The match-ups are set according to rankings with the top remaining seed playing the bottom remaining seed in one game and the other two remaining teams playing in the second game.

3. The following Saturday – the two remain teams play for the Chris Lynch National Championship Trophy (hey it’s my idea – I get to pick the name of the trophy). My suggested system would need seven bowl games. Take the top seven currently (say the Rose, Orange, Cotton, Sugar, Fiesta and two more) and rotate the championship games between them.

This system would fix and address the following:

1. Right now the number 3 team in the country feels like it is getting screwed (this year that team will either be Michigan or Florida). With the new system you could get complaints from the 9th or 10th teams in the country thinking they should have been allowed in but that would have been Arkansas and Notre Dame this year. Once the games begin – people will quickly forget the about whining of the 9th and 10th teams whereas if Michigan or Florida win on January 8th – the team not invited will be carping for the rest of creation. Things get settled on the field with my system.

2. Right now too many teams get to go to bowl games. Can you believe that Navy, Cincinnati and Miami are all probably going to a bowl game? If we kept the number of bowls the same – the proposed system would cut the field by 6 teams (same number of games but there are now 3 games in which teams will be playing their second or third games) which would make getting a bowl bid a more valuable commodity and a more cherished reward for a good season.

3. Corporate sponsorship – the amount of money that could be generated by this system would be huge and a good amount of that money would have to go to pay off the big conferences that get automatic births today and thus automatic big paydays for the conference. Notre Dame would also have to be paid off.

One final thing - I would also make the money generated by this system taxable. Let's also fix that loophole while we are at it. These bowl games have nothing to do with education. Its business and the revenue should be taxed. That’s my suggestions. Take it for what it’s worth.

The Interview with Britney Spear's Vagina

ALR was lucky to snatch up another timely interview with one of the biggest newsmakers of the day. This time we were lucky to get a few moments alone with Britney Spear's vagina (BSV). We were going to use a picture of BSV but in the interest of decency - we decided to use a picture of a kitten instead (of course in BSV's case - it really should be a hairless kitten).

ALR: You've been in the news lately because Britney showed you off by going pantyless when she had to have known you'd be photographed. Was this whole episode planned?

BSV: First - thank you for having me. I'm convinced that Paris Hilton set up the whole papparazzi thing. Paris said that a gash shot would pre-empt anyone from wanting to see me and K-Fed in a sex tape. I thought she meant that once people saw Britney's cooter - meaning me - that the public curiosity would be gone. Now I'’m afraid what she meant was that once people saw her cooter that their appetite would be gone. I'm also convinced that Paris convinced Britney to wear that awful green dress thing. Britney's boobs are pretty upset about that whole thing.

ALR: Forgive me for saying this but if Britney planned this - you would think that she would have made sure you were better prepared for public viewing.

BSV: Well I think three things come into play here. First, Britney is not very hygienic to begin with. Secondly, I think people may have sort of built up an image of me in their imagination that was going to be tough to match. Now people are kind of disappointed with the real me. And finally, and this is just my own theory, but do you know how some people say that pet owners come to look like their pets? I think in my case the opposite was true and I started looking like a hairless K-Fed soon after Britney got married. People blame my rough looks on the pregnancies but I blame it on K-Fed.

ALR: What do you think about the public outrage that has erupted in some corners about Britney flashing you in public?

BSV: Well I'm both embarrassed and surprised. I'm embarrassed because - well - let me get back to that. I'm surprised because Britney had just done a nude statue when she was pregnant and nobody had complained much about that. Getting back to why I'm embarrassed - I guess its mostly because Britney's momma had to be mortified by this whole deal and well - young girls look up to me and I feel that I've let them down. I just feel dirty and skanky now and I wish the whole thing never happened.

ALR: Thank you so much for your time.

BSV: No problem. Come back and see me anytime.

Heh Heh - the Mustache

This was pretty funny.

HT Aaron Gleeman who is living large at the Winter meetings

USC vs UCLA

(ALR is lucky to have a guest in today to look a today's college football games. Without further ado - here is Moe from The Simpsons and his outlook on today's games)

Hi, my name's Moe. Or as the ladies like to refer to me, "hey you in the bushes". Looking at today's games I see a bunch of games that either could go either way or where the point spread is too much for my liking.

The only game I like is the USC / UCLA game. Normally I don't like USC because they think they're so high and mighty - just because they never got caught driving without pants. However, there ain't enough booze in my bar to make UCLA look good. I've seen a bunch of "pundits" point out that a couple of years ago USC was 11-0 and yet only escaped the UCLA game with a 5-point victory. Don't you think USC knows that? Don't you think Pete Carroll has brought that up at every practice this week? USC will be looking to wipe the floor with UCLA this week so that there is no question that they belong in the BCS championship game.

Take USC and give the 13 points. And if Pete Carroll doesn't come through for me then I'll track him down and use his head as a bucket and paint my house with his brains.

If I was forced to choose - I'd also take Florida, Navy and West Virginia today.

Historical Inaccuracies



This week's Photoshop Phriday at Something Awful was pretty amusing.

Borat Learns to Play Football



Funny stuff!

Christmas Favorite

It's a BK Holiday

Does it make me a bad person because I love that?

Baseball Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts and observations.



- The above picture reminds me that Jose Lima is still a free agent.

- Toronto signed Royce Clayton to a one-year $1.5 million deal. This story had an interesting paragraph:

Ricciardi said Wednesday that he wanted to sign a shortstop and that he planned on having Aaron Hill play second base.

Riccardi says he wanted to sign a shortstop - not that he wanted to sign this shortstop. My guess is that Clayton is just a back-up plan (getting back-up player money) and that Toronto is still very much in the hunt for Julio Lugo. My thinking is that Lugo will sign with either Toronto or Boston and that the loser will look for an established second baseman and go with the young Aaron Hill or Dustin Pedroia at short.

- Seeing Jose Lima's wife reminded me that we haven't heard from Kris Benson's wife in quite some time. I wonder if this year she'll be wearing the same Christmas outfit?

- The winter meetings start Monday and I look for the Hot Stove League to be very active between now and then. One prediction - Tom Glavine re-signs with the Mets for one-year and $10-11 million. Another prediction - the Red Sox will either sign Eric Gagne or trade for a closer by December 7th.

- The Cardinals signed Adam Kennedy to play second base. I called that one a couple of weeks ago if you recall.

- Let me go on record as saying I don't believe the talk about JD Drew signing with the Sox. When Theo came back to be the GM - one of his big conditions was putting an end to leaks from the front office. All of a sudden there are stories leaked that the Red Sox are ready to sign Drew? Doesn't add up. What I think is happening is that the Red Sox are allowing Boras to spin the Red Sox as a suitor so that Boras can up the ante with teams like the Giants or Dodgers ("Hey boys - you better act quick because the deep pocket Red Sox are ready to sign him - did you see the piece in SI - but my client really wants to stay on the West Coast but you better act quick.") Maybe the Drew rumor is in exchange for a discount on Matsuzaka?

John Edwards and Wal-Mart

Ever since one of John Edwards' volunteers tried to use Edwards' name in order to get one of the very scarce Playstation 3's a week or so ago - many people have been weighing in on how silly it is for Edwards to be attacking Wal-Mart. I think it makes perfect sense for Edwards to attack Wal-Mart. Just understand - he's really not attacking Wal-Mart.

Edwards has two targets with these anti-Wal-Mart screeds. One he wants to bring down and one he wants to raise up.

Edwards' main target is Hillary Clinton. He wants to both bring her down and be able to present himself as a clear choice to her. Hillary was on Wal-Mart's board of directors for 6-years. Wal-Mart's home office is based out of Bentonville, Arkansas. To deny Wal-Mart - Hillary Clinton will have to deny her past. She will have to be disloyal to some of the very people who helped her and her husband get to where they are today. Clinton will either have to embrace the non-union Wal-Mart or she will have to abandon old friends. She'll have to take a stance FOR unions or AGAINST loyalty. John Edwards wants to make her squirm while she makes her choice and for as long after as he can.

Look for Edwards to start talking more and more about loyalty as a key attribute of leadership.

The second group that Edwards is pimping with his anti-Wal-Mart rants are the netroots crowd. They like to think of themselves as superior and both wouldn't be caught dead shopping at Wal-Mart or allow a Wal-Mart in their city without a fight (see San Diego). These elitists are the same people who put Howard Dean in the lead in 2004 and they like feeling important and if donating money to a guy fighting Wal-Mart like Edwards helps them to feel like they are determining the course of the history of this country - who is John Edwards to argue?

Edwards needs something to set himself apart from the rest of the 2008 Democratic field. He's betting on Wal-Mart. Looking at everything else he has to offer (or lacks to offer) - it may be his best bet.

The Last Hurrah

I watched The Last Hurrah starring Spencer Tracy last night on Turner Classic Movies. The movie (and the book) is truly classic but unfortunately the movie (and the book) has started to fade from the public consciousness. The movie was directed by legendary director John Ford and the screenplay was the work of Frank Nugent (who also wrote the screenplay for Ford's The Quiet Man and Forte Apache).

The basic plot of the book is both a thinly veiled biopic of James Michael Curley and also a tale of the changing of the guard in politics. The tale of the old, machine politics, ward boss, dispenser of favors vs the new, young telegenic politician is very spot on. It is instructive and in its way it makes one yearn for the old ways of politics.

The problem with those old Frank Skeffington / James Michael Curley ways is that A: the ugly side of graft and extortion are glossed over and B: they just wouldn't work today. They wouldn't work today because the spoils system of patronage has been replaced by affirmative action and civil service. However, the main reason it wouldn't work is because back then everyone knew everyone else in the neighborhood. Today people may only know a few people who live on their street never mind the neighborhood. Tip O'Neill famously said that all politics is local but that definition of "local" has morphed over the year to be much less specific.

The old school of politcs seems to have died out in this day of sound bites and the the blogosphere but something tells me that selectively using tactics from the old days could be very successful today where machines leaving telephone messages are common and live calls from friends are less frequent. The very word "Hurrah" is as dated and un-used as the old ways of politics. But the word "Hurrah" can be very useful in making a point just as some of the old ways could be useful in gaining a public office

One thing that did bother me was the fact that it was filmed in California and the weather in November (when elections are held) looked so good on screen that it just felt fake.

Jon Stewart

Today is Jon Stewart's 44th birthday and I offer a hearty and hale "Happy birthday!" to the Daily Show funny man. I don't agree with much of Stewart's politics (though I do agree that Tucker Carlson is an empty gong signifying nothing). That doesn't mean I don't enjoy his humor. Stewart signed an extension to his Daily Show contract back in March of 2004 that should keep him on the air until at least 2008 (assuming he doesn't move on to bigger things like taking over for David Letterman when Letterman decides to call it quits).

David Caruso used to be the butt of all career suicide jokes but with Caruso doing his lifeless acting on CSI Miami and getting well paid to do it - I think Craig Kilborn should now be the benchmark against which all poor show business career choices are made. When Kilborn left the Daily Show in 1999 - Jon Stewart took over. Now Jon Stewart is a household name while Kilborn is a distant memory. And for that Craig Kilborn - I thank you.

Jon Stewart and the Daily Show also provided us with what I think is the best summation of the Kerry campaign for President in 2004. After a Kerry appearance on the Daily Show (his only live TV appearance during the final months of the campaign) - Dana Stevens at Slate summarized the appearance thusly:

Kerry's charisma was less than zero: It was negative. He was a charm vacuum, forced to actually borrow mojo from audience members. He was a dessicated husk, a tin man who really didn't have a heart. His lack of vibrancy, his utter dearth of sex appeal made Al Gore look like Charo. . . .

That was Kerry in a nutshell.

And now for your moment of Zen. Jon Stewart interviewing Emma Bunton and Victoria Beckham (two of the Spice Girls) in one of the best moments of the show.

Seinfeld: The Lost Episode

This was very well done and probably the only time you'll see anything on Michael Richards' "rant" here at ALR.

HT ifilus

Coincidence?

Yesterday there was news about a new pill that could prevent male ejaculation.

Today the stock price of Kimberly-Clark (the makers of Kleenex) is down $0.68 per share.

Coincidence?

Randy Wolf to Dodgers?

This may turn out to be the steal of the off-season. Wolf has the stuff to be a staff ace and a lot of the historical stuff bodes well for him. To wit:

1. Pitchers are normally stronger coming off Tommy John surgery and the second season after the surgery is when you see that return to full strength (or better). Wolf had the surgery in 2005.

2. Baseball-refernce.com lists Brad Penny as the most similar pitcher to Wolf and Jason Schmidt as the most similar by age. If Wolf comes close to being as effective as either - then the deal is a bargain.

3. Speaking of age - Wolf is just 30 and should be in his prime.

With the signing of Wolf - the Dodgers would have one of the deepest rotations in baseball. They could trot out Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, Wolf, Mark Hendrickson (who did have a bad second half with LA but I look for him to adjust this season) and either Brett Tomko or 23-year old Chad Billingsley. It is also very possible Greg Maddux will return to the fold.

I really like this signing by the Dodgers. I just wished the Red Sox had made the deal.

Fun With Maps

I really got a kick out of this site. My favorites were:

The World According to Ronald Reagan

and

A Map of the Planet Mongo

There was also an entry on where the phrase "beyond the Pale" actually comes from. I knew this and was actually going to post about it a while ago but now I don't have to.

HT Big Stupid Tommy

The NuttyBuddy

You have to check out this site and YOU HAVE TO WATCH THE VIDEO.

I laughed my ass off. It was like Bull Durham done by Fellini. A pretty girl works the pitching machine, a Japanese-American trainer and a cameo by Chris Sabo and his goggles.

HT Buck

Ohio State vs USC for BCS Championship

With the win over Notre Dame on Saturday night - USC has all but wrapped up a chance to play in the national championship game against Ohio State on January 8th. The Trojans still have to beat UCLA next Saturday and stranger things have happened than a Bruins upset but I think the safe bet is for USC fans to book their trips now.

Possibly lost in the discussion of the worthyness of a one-loss USC vs a one-loss Michigan in a rematch with Ohio State is the ramifications of what undoubtably was to me the play of the year.

In the waning moments of the Louisville and Rutgers game - Jeremy Ito of the Scarlet Knights tried a field goal with the score tied. His kick missed but William Gay of Louisville jumped offsides. With 13 seconds remaining - Jeremy Ito made his second chance kick and Louisville was knocked from the ranks of the undefeated. If that game goes to overtime - maybe Louisville wins it and is undefeated today.

Could the BCS have kept an unbeaten Louisville out of the championship game? I think not.

The national championship will be decided by the final score of the January 8th game but it boggles the mind to think that who will play in that game may have come down to an offsides call on a defensive lineman from early November.

Is Iraq in the Midst of a Civil War?

Noted military historian John Keegan takes a look at the question. The key paragraphs:

Could Iraq be the first civil war ever without battles, generals, explicit war aims, the use of partisan public rhetoric by civilian leaders, mass public participation and targets of a predominantly military nature? Even if Iraq today possessed these characteristics, it would still lack something even more important: the struggle for authority. In Iraq, the state actors are fighting for authority. But the others are not, which is probably why we do not hear from them. The Shia militias are the armed wings of the two biggest parties in parliament, and their people own the top ministries. Neither Badr nor the al-Sadr movement is big enough or strong enough to own the state itself. They balance each other while the Sunnis, whose violent actors are far smaller, provide the final guarantee against a full grab for power by either. It is no coincidence that the only player, apart from the state, that acknowledges war aims is the only player whose war aims constitute the traditional aspiration of exclusive control: the religious element of the Sunni insurgency. The aspiration to a new Baghdad caliphate frees the Wahhabis and Salafists from the pragmatic calculations of al-Sadr or the Baathists, and lets them dream of control, and talk about it on their websites.

Objectively, it must be concluded that the disorders in Iraq do not constitute a civil war but are nearer to a politico-military struggle for power. Such struggles in Muslim countries defy resolution because Islam is irreconcilably divided over the issue of the succession to Muhammad. It might be said that Islam is in a permanent state of civil war (at least where there is a significant minority of the opposing sect) and that authority in Muslim lands can be sustained only by repression if the state takes on a religious cast, since neither Shia nor Sunni communities can concede legitimacy to their opponents.

To me the words "civil war" seem to be thrown around with the carelessness of the word "quagmire" or shouted as part of a slogan like "no blood for oil" with the same amount of ignorance of the underlying facts of the matter.

It seems to me that the phrase "nature abhors a vacuum" is the most apt to describe the violence in Iraq. There are small pockets where control is not secure and this power vacuum breeds the opportunity for violence as part of the grab for power. If the US and coalition forces were to "redeploy" from Iraq - that would create a tremendous vacuum at the top and this huge vacuum would cause a true civil war.

Thus it would be a self-fufilling prophesy. The people who say Iraq is in the midst of a civil war now and want us to pull the troops out would cause the civil war and mass bloodshed they imagine today by pulling the troops out.

2006 Walter Payton Award Finalists

The folloing players (listed alphabetically) are the finalists for the 2006 Walter Payton Award (the Heisman equivalent for 1-AA football players). Who will be the next Tony Romo (2002 award winner)?

David Ball, WR, New Hampshire
Steve Baylark, RB, Massachusetts
Clifton Dawson, RB, Harvard
Jerome Felton, FB, Furman
Justise Hairston, RB, Central Connecticut State
Josh Johnson, QB, San Diego
Marcus Mason, RB, Youngstown State
Jason Murrietta, QB, Northern Arizona
Justin Rascati, QB, James Madison
Pierre Rembert, RB, Illinois State
Kevin Richardson, RB, Appalachian State
Ricky Santos, QB, New Hampshire
D.D. Terry, RB, Sam Houston State
Tyler Thigpen, QB, Coastal Carolina
Steve Walker, QB, North Dakota State
Arkee Whitlock, RB, Southern Illinois

I'm sticking with my pick of Josh Johnson of San Diego as the favorite to win the award.

You can find information on all the finalists here.