Sunday, October 28, 2012

Presidential Election Prediction

Mitt Romney is going to win by a landslide on November 6th. He is going to win for 3 main reasons:

1. He has the Republican base energized. They not only will come out in large numbers but are also acting now doing the ground-game get out the vote grunt work.
2. Romney is winning the independent vote mainly based upon his economic arguments and plans. People aren't stupid. They see that the policies of the past 4 years are not working.
3. The above two reasons would give Romney a win but not a landslide. What will give Romney a landslide will be Democrats refusing to vote for Obama. Again some of this will be based upon economic policies but I think many will refuse to pull the lever because of the way the deaths of Ambassador Stevens and three other Americans in Benghazi was handled. I think the revulsion shown by Democrat pollster Pat Caddell in this video clip is shared by many informed Democratic voters.

When the post election postmortem is done I think the numbers will show that in state after state many more Democrats voted for the federal offices of Senator or Congressman than voted for the Democrat at the top of the ticket. These folks may not vote for Mitt Romney but by not voting for Barack Obama they will be widening the gap which will be the difference between a slim victory and a landslide.

8 comments:

  1. What do you consider a landslide? 52/48? More? If you set the line at Romney -3.5, I'll take Obama and the points.

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  2. I'm talking an electoral college landslide where Romney will have a huge advantage - not quite Reagan over Carter in 1980 but big enough so that modern polling that said this was a tight race will be called into question.

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  3. I doubt that. I think it's more likely that Romney wins the popular vote, and loses the electoral college, than winning in an electoral college landslide.

    I'd set the line at Obama -39.5, and lay the points.

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  4. Lou - I'd be willing to bet a dinner at Capital Grill in Providence. Straight up you take Obama and I take Romney - loser pays the bill (beer only, no bottles of wine or hard liquor drinks).

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  5. Meh, not a fan of Capital Grille. Loser makes $100 donation to charity of the winner's choosing?

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  6. Oops, that last post was me. Forgot to change the field.

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  7. Deal - $100 it is (and I named Capital Grill because it was the only Providence restaurant I could name off the top of my head)

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  8. Lou - email me to let me know who I'm writing that $100 check out to.

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