More Linky Links

More stuff I found interesting or amusing and thought I'd share.

- Interesting review of two books on spies and the Cold War. This conclusion was worth noting, "both authors agree that cuts to intelligence budgets end up costing more than they save."

- Good reminder from time to time.

- Is this the US putting Britain's commitment to free speech to the test?

- Center for Immigration Studies with an explainer of Trump's immigration/border Executive Orders.

Linky Links

Stuff I found interests or amuses and thought I'd share.

- The NASCAR-ization of college sports is on its way.

- Niall Ferguson: We All Soviets Now

- Morgan Housel on Quiet Compounding. Like the Great Sequoia metaphor.

- Exit Willie Mays. Should be highlighted that Willie Mays spent 2-years in the military in the 50's while he was in his prime.

The Man Who Saved the World

 On this day 36-years ago Lt. Col. Stanislav Petrov may have single-handedly saved the world from global thermonuclear war.

I was a senior in high school and my biggest concern probably had to deal with whoever we were playing in football that weekend. Little did I know how close we all were to being incinerated.

How is it that Lt. Col. Stanislav Petrov isn't a household name? This is real-life Bruce Willis in Armageddon type stuff here.

Top 5 - Changes We'll See After the Wuhan Virus

Here are the Top 5 things I think will change as a result of the Wuhan Virus.

1. There will be a new Cold War but this time with China as the enemy. The trade war with China will force both a decoupling between the two nations but also a choosing of sides with other nations.

2. Social distancing and wearing masks (especially during flu season) will become the norm. No more handshakes or hi-fives. They will be replaced with the "nod of acknowledgement."

3. Globalism and any cause that relies on political correctness shaming will lose vast support. People have had a glimpse of what's behind the curtain and they didn't like what they saw. Little to no patience going forward for people who believe they have their own "truths" that need to be listened to. People who think they can "shame" others because their beliefs differ are going to become the new pariahs as it is made clear that these folks really have nothing positive to add to society.

4. The role of sports in society will be greatly lessened. We've learned that no March Madness, no Opening Day, or NBA, or NHL isn't the end of the world. Interest in watching games will be less and interest in attending games will nosedive as people begin to avoid crowds. Same will be true of anything that relies on crowds like concerts, movies, festivals, etc.

5. People will start moving out of the cities in droves. Part of the new "avoiding crowds" for health purposes. Subways, buses and other forms of public transportation will be viewed as breeding grounds for the plague. Life is short and not worth spending in crowded environments will be the siren song of people who refuse to be "fools for the city" as Foghat once put it.

China

"You got to lower your ideals of freedom if you want to suck on the warm teat of China." - South Park 

The theme this week seems to be China and the US - a new Cold War.

This article looks at the relationship between China and the US in "rear-view mirror" terms to the USSR / USA Cold War. The author does a good job explaining why military confrontation is less likely today.

The struggle today is less ideological and more in tune with national interest - specifically economic interests. Countries are not going to buy into China's version of manifest destiny (such as their Belt and Road or New Silk Road Initiatives) but they will bend to financial incentives. Micro individual serving economics (such as the money and incentives given to individual companies, politicians or "influencers" such as Hunter Biden) versus Macro "Communist vs Capitalist" dogma. Useful idiot individuals willfully sucking on the warm teat of China harming their own nation's national interests in the process.

This article also makes the Cold War comparison but argues that Communist China may be weaker than it appears. It may look stronger in comparison to the USSR in terms of military and economic strength but its reliance on the US is a huge weakness. I agree.

The Chinese tried to punish the US for Trump's increased tariffs by cancelling orders of millions of tons of soy beans thinking this would hurt Trump politically. But China tried to buy soy beans from Russia only to find that Russia barely has enough crops to feed themselves. So look for China to offer to buy millions of tons of food from US farmers during the next round of trade negotiations as their "act of good faith" towards "finalizing" a deal or at least getting a break in tariffs.

China also still has to deal with the protests in Hong Kong. Sadly the Chinese will use the fact that most Americans are "bored" with the story and no longer paying attention to institute a hardline crackdown. My hope is that President Trump uses the One China Two Systems deal which was supposed to be for 50-years to point to the Chinese - how can we trust you not to break our agreement? This could be the only thing that might lessen to blow on the freedom loving Hong Kongers.

Couple this with China not following through on promises to stem the tide of fentanyl coming into the US from known Chinese sources. Now Trump has reason to institute new and harsher tariffs. And if framed as trying to end the fentanyl epidemic - the American people will love him for it. (Look for a move along these lines in the next 12 months.) 

These arguments don't even touch with the Chinese genocide of the Muslim Uighurs (which really exposes what sort of people we are dealing with).

Decoupling is actually the end game goal. The threat of delisting Chinese companies from US stock exchanges foreshadows this. I don't think the US follows through with delisting until at least after the 2020 election. It is also more leverage for President Trump to use in negotiations. But slowly but surely there will be a decoupling until the words "Made in China" are poison to most Western societies.

The Man Who Saved the World

On this day 36-years ago Lt. Col. Stanislav Petrov may have single-handedly saved the world from global thermonuclear war.

I was a senior in high school and my biggest concern probably had to deal with whoever we were playing in football that weekend. Little did I know how close we all were to being incinerated.

How is it that Lt. Col. Stanislav Petrov isn't a household name? This is real-life Bruce Willis in Armageddon type stuff here.

China and the New Cold War

This is scary.

It was no accident having that Chinese sub surface where and when it did. The Chinese are actively probing our defenses for weaknesses. Make no mistake - we are in a Cold War with China.

As just one man - there's not much I can do but what I can do is stop buying any goods that say "Made in China". I used to laugh about those commercials that connected smoking pot to supporting terrorism but in this case if you buy goods made in China you really are aiding and abetting the enemy.

Between China's annexation of Tibet and their military and economic actions towards the US - t is becoming clear that we must not feed the dragon. Boycott China.

With Christmas coming - hurt the Chinese where they will feel it. Boycott Chinese goods.