The theme this week seems to be China and the US - a new Cold War.
This article looks at the relationship between China and the US in "rear-view mirror" terms to the USSR / USA Cold War. The author does a good job explaining why military confrontation is less likely today.
The struggle today is less ideological and more in tune with national interest - specifically economic interests. Countries are not going to buy into China's version of manifest destiny (such as their Belt and Road or New Silk Road Initiatives) but they will bend to financial incentives. Micro individual serving economics (such as the money and incentives given to individual companies, politicians or "influencers" such as Hunter Biden) versus Macro "Communist vs Capitalist" dogma. Useful idiot individuals willfully sucking on the warm teat of China harming their own nation's national interests in the process.
This article also makes the Cold War comparison but argues that Communist China may be weaker than it appears. It may look stronger in comparison to the USSR in terms of military and economic strength but its reliance on the US is a huge weakness. I agree.
The Chinese tried to punish the US for Trump's increased tariffs by cancelling orders of millions of tons of soy beans thinking this would hurt Trump politically. But China tried to buy soy beans from Russia only to find that Russia barely has enough crops to feed themselves. So look for China to offer to buy millions of tons of food from US farmers during the next round of trade negotiations as their "act of good faith" towards "finalizing" a deal or at least getting a break in tariffs.
China also still has to deal with the protests in Hong Kong. Sadly the Chinese will use the fact that most Americans are "bored" with the story and no longer paying attention to institute a hardline crackdown. My hope is that President Trump uses the One China Two Systems deal which was supposed to be for 50-years to point to the Chinese - how can we trust you not to break our agreement? This could be the only thing that might lessen to blow on the freedom loving Hong Kongers.
Couple this with China not following through on promises to stem the tide of fentanyl coming into the US from known Chinese sources. Now Trump has reason to institute new and harsher tariffs. And if framed as trying to end the fentanyl epidemic - the American people will love him for it. (Look for a move along these lines in the next 12 months.)
These arguments don't even touch with the Chinese genocide of the Muslim Uighurs (which really exposes what sort of people we are dealing with).
Decoupling is actually the end game goal. The threat of delisting Chinese companies from US stock exchanges foreshadows this. I don't think the US follows through with delisting until at least after the 2020 election. It is also more leverage for President Trump to use in negotiations. But slowly but surely there will be a decoupling until the words "Made in China" are poison to most Western societies.
The Chinese treatment of the Uighurs is one of the few things I like about them. They're not stupid enough to put up with completely incompatible people.
ReplyDeleteChuck that's a pretty ugly sentiment.
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