Presidential Election Odds
I meant to note this yesterday but the odds on the Presidential election have changed (albeit only slightly). The new odds are Bush -$205 and Kerry +$155. This means that you would have to risk $205 to win $100 on Bush but only have to risk $100 to win $155 on Kerry. (On Tuesday the odds were Bush -$200 and Kerry +$150.)
The bookies want this to be close so that they get an equal amount bet on each side - so they make their money on the vigorish. The Kerry campaign imploding has the potential to cause the bookies to take this bet off the board.
Get in now - unless Bush and Cheney sacrifice a live baby and eat the entrails during the debates then they easily get re-elected.
If you bet $12,000 on Bush back when they were even (-$120 each - right after the DNC) and then bet $8,000 on Kerry today (+$155) - then you would be guaranteed at least $2,000 if Bush won or $40 if Kerry wins on November 3rd. No risk, playing the middle bets are what it's all about.
Thursday, September 16, 2004
Miscellaneous Thoughts
Heh heh - from Big Stupid Tommy - "Do you think that the Today Show's Al Roker, as he stands in the hurricane winds of Ivan, wishes that he hadn't lost all that weight?"... After writing that last bit - I now have Chris Farley's voice in my head singing, "Fat guy in little coat, fat guy in little coat"... Very cool - my favorite part is that their Bob Villa is a woman... Happy birthday to Robin Yount (49th) and Orel Hershiser (46th)... Flatus odor judge or barnyard maturbator?
Heh heh - from Big Stupid Tommy - "Do you think that the Today Show's Al Roker, as he stands in the hurricane winds of Ivan, wishes that he hadn't lost all that weight?"... After writing that last bit - I now have Chris Farley's voice in my head singing, "Fat guy in little coat, fat guy in little coat"... Very cool - my favorite part is that their Bob Villa is a woman... Happy birthday to Robin Yount (49th) and Orel Hershiser (46th)... Flatus odor judge or barnyard maturbator?
No Way To Run a Campaign - September Timeline - Update
Full September Timeline
Full August Timeline
Sept. 13th - Zell "I will never trust John Kerry with my family's safety" Miller keeps firing away and damaging the Kerry campaign among NRA Democrats. John Kerry tries to get his message out but nobody is listening because all the attention is on Dan Rather and his dubious documents.
Sept. 14th - Kerry continues to trail in the major swing states. The DNC ties itself to Dan Rather in a big way. Republicans ask "is this the best they got?"
Sept. 15th - Things are so bad for the Kerry campaign that both New Jersey and Illinois are now in play. First Jon Stewart and now Don Imus. At least Kerry is heading in the right direction. At this pace he won't do Tim Russet's show until November 6th (which of course will be too late).
Full September Timeline
Full August Timeline
Sept. 13th - Zell "I will never trust John Kerry with my family's safety" Miller keeps firing away and damaging the Kerry campaign among NRA Democrats. John Kerry tries to get his message out but nobody is listening because all the attention is on Dan Rather and his dubious documents.
Sept. 14th - Kerry continues to trail in the major swing states. The DNC ties itself to Dan Rather in a big way. Republicans ask "is this the best they got?"
Sept. 15th - Things are so bad for the Kerry campaign that both New Jersey and Illinois are now in play. First Jon Stewart and now Don Imus. At least Kerry is heading in the right direction. At this pace he won't do Tim Russet's show until November 6th (which of course will be too late).
Dan Rather and the Alien Autopsy Tapes
In a stunning development - CBS has decided to do a 60 Minutes II special devoted to the Alien Autopsy Tapes. Even though these tapes have long ago proven to be fakes, CBS feels that the content of the tapes "probably" happened. A CBS official also mentioned that they had a lot less problems finding "experts" who believe in the alien autopsies than finding experts who believe in the documents they recently used to smear President Bush's guard service.
In a stunning development - CBS has decided to do a 60 Minutes II special devoted to the Alien Autopsy Tapes. Even though these tapes have long ago proven to be fakes, CBS feels that the content of the tapes "probably" happened. A CBS official also mentioned that they had a lot less problems finding "experts" who believe in the alien autopsies than finding experts who believe in the documents they recently used to smear President Bush's guard service.
AL Cy Young Race
Preseason I was one of the very few people who picked Johan Santana to be the AL Cy Young Award winner and I have no reason to change that pick now (except for the fact that I'm a Red Sox fans and I would prefer Schilling or Pedro).
1. Johan Santana
2. Curt Schilling
3. Pedro Martinez
4. Mariano Rivera
5. Joe Nathan
Preseason I was one of the very few people who picked Johan Santana to be the AL Cy Young Award winner and I have no reason to change that pick now (except for the fact that I'm a Red Sox fans and I would prefer Schilling or Pedro).
1. Johan Santana
2. Curt Schilling
3. Pedro Martinez
4. Mariano Rivera
5. Joe Nathan
NL Cy Young Race
Before the season started - I picked Randy Johnson as my Cy Young Award winner and as it stands now - I still pick Randy Johnson.
1. Randy Johnson
2. Carl Pavano
3. Roger Clemens
4. Jason Schmidt
5. Ben Sheets
Sure Johnson only has 14 wins (along with 13 losses) but he leads in every major statistical category (except wins). The Big Unit is number one in ERA, K's, innings pitched, K/9, WHIP and quality starts.
Before the season started - I picked Randy Johnson as my Cy Young Award winner and as it stands now - I still pick Randy Johnson.
1. Randy Johnson
2. Carl Pavano
3. Roger Clemens
4. Jason Schmidt
5. Ben Sheets
Sure Johnson only has 14 wins (along with 13 losses) but he leads in every major statistical category (except wins). The Big Unit is number one in ERA, K's, innings pitched, K/9, WHIP and quality starts.
Wednesday, September 15, 2004
Merging the Two Big Stories of the Week
Upset that he was scooped on the "Batman invades Buckingham Palace" story and determined to rebuild his shattered reputation - Dan Rather decides to do a series of exposes on 60 Minutes II:
Dan does a story on the Shroud of Batman. Rather gets a person who worked in the drycleaning business for 6 months as his "Shroud expert" and Alan Napier who played Alfred the Butler on the TV series to vet the shroud as the real deal. Unfortunately for Dan it appears that the real Alan Napier actually died in 1988.
Rather breaks the story of the heist of the famous painting The Scream. Unfortunately Rather refuses to release the painting to be authenticated. He says it is up to his critics to prove that the painting isn't real. Rather then adds, "Nana nana boo boo" (which he later adopts as his signature sign off line).
Dan then does a shocking expose that purports that JFK had sexual relations with a younger man. Special guest - Kitty Kelly.
Upset that he was scooped on the "Batman invades Buckingham Palace" story and determined to rebuild his shattered reputation - Dan Rather decides to do a series of exposes on 60 Minutes II:
Dan does a story on the Shroud of Batman. Rather gets a person who worked in the drycleaning business for 6 months as his "Shroud expert" and Alan Napier who played Alfred the Butler on the TV series to vet the shroud as the real deal. Unfortunately for Dan it appears that the real Alan Napier actually died in 1988.
Rather breaks the story of the heist of the famous painting The Scream. Unfortunately Rather refuses to release the painting to be authenticated. He says it is up to his critics to prove that the painting isn't real. Rather then adds, "Nana nana boo boo" (which he later adopts as his signature sign off line).
Dan then does a shocking expose that purports that JFK had sexual relations with a younger man. Special guest - Kitty Kelly.
Observation from VDH
Victor Davis Hanson had this observation in response to a reader's question:
Victor Davis Hanson had this observation in response to a reader's question:
This is an election year in which our sense of balance is all out of kilter: a former National Security Advisor walks out with top secret documents stuck in his pants that may have been later "lost" and we shrug; mention "Jewish" sympathies and we have a full-blown spy-scandal. I have met a number of officers and civilians in the Pentagon and none of them were patsies for Israel; they were among the finest people I've encountered. I'll leave you with a disturbing thought: at a time of war, going to Paris and freelancing with Viet Cong representatives in 1970-71 should have been a felony; being a midlevel analyst and perhaps talking too much about what we should do in Iran is not even a misdemeanor. So let us wait for the facts to come out. We are only now getting the full story of the so-called Joe Wilson escapade, and it looks worse for him each week.
The Price of Liberal Bias?
CBS is part of the Viacom family and the Viacom stock ain't doing so well.
The above chart compares the Viacom stock to the performance of the NYSE over the past 12 months. The trend isn't good and I'm willing to bet that the news of people talking about boycotting CBS and the sponsors who advertise on CBS because of the stunt that Dan Rather and 60 Minutes II tried to pull with bogus documents isn't exactly welcome news in the Viacom boardroom.
Last year the New York Times tried to exert pressure on CBS because of their broadcasting of The Masters which had come under attack from Harold Raines because of Augusta National's male only member policy. I'm willing to bet that the boycott being spoke about on the Internet now proves to me much more influential than the pressure that Raines tried to exert.
What happens next will be interesting just for the comparison of "new" media influence vs. "old" media influence.
CBS is part of the Viacom family and the Viacom stock ain't doing so well.
The above chart compares the Viacom stock to the performance of the NYSE over the past 12 months. The trend isn't good and I'm willing to bet that the news of people talking about boycotting CBS and the sponsors who advertise on CBS because of the stunt that Dan Rather and 60 Minutes II tried to pull with bogus documents isn't exactly welcome news in the Viacom boardroom.
Last year the New York Times tried to exert pressure on CBS because of their broadcasting of The Masters which had come under attack from Harold Raines because of Augusta National's male only member policy. I'm willing to bet that the boycott being spoke about on the Internet now proves to me much more influential than the pressure that Raines tried to exert.
What happens next will be interesting just for the comparison of "new" media influence vs. "old" media influence.
Miscellaneous Thoughts
The Red Sox sweep the A's but lose two to the Mariners. Now they come back home and lose to Tampa Bay. It's frustrating.... I just love the phrase "all her glory" when it is used to say someone is naked. I last read it to describe Julianne Moore who recently posed nude and "cannot understand why people are so shocked by the sight of her in all her glory, lying face down on a sofa"... Right now the only Yankee at .300 or better is Gary Sheffield and he is at exactly .300. The last time the Yankees did not have a batter hit .300 was 1992... Have I mentioned that I picked Johan Santana before the season started to be the AL Cy Young winner?... Did you know Johnny Cash was the only man inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, the Country Music Hall of Fame and the Songwriters Hall of Fame?... Heh heh - the Navy Seal Hell-Week of laxatives (read the review)...
The Red Sox sweep the A's but lose two to the Mariners. Now they come back home and lose to Tampa Bay. It's frustrating.... I just love the phrase "all her glory" when it is used to say someone is naked. I last read it to describe Julianne Moore who recently posed nude and "cannot understand why people are so shocked by the sight of her in all her glory, lying face down on a sofa"... Right now the only Yankee at .300 or better is Gary Sheffield and he is at exactly .300. The last time the Yankees did not have a batter hit .300 was 1992... Have I mentioned that I picked Johan Santana before the season started to be the AL Cy Young winner?... Did you know Johnny Cash was the only man inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, the Country Music Hall of Fame and the Songwriters Hall of Fame?... Heh heh - the Navy Seal Hell-Week of laxatives (read the review)...
Rathergate - the Godfather III Theory
Do you recall in Godfather III when Michael (Al Pachino) is unexpectedly hospitalized and in his absence his sister Connie (Talia Shire) authorized a "hit" on Joe Zasa by Vincent (Andy Garcia)?
I think something similar may have happened to cause RatherGate. (Excuse me while I put on my tin-foil hat and pajamas.)
The current Godfather of the Democratic Party gets suddenly hospitalized (Bill Clinton). While he is incapacitated - his wife (who may just as well be his sister at this point with seperate beds and all) authorized a "hit" to be carried out by the Godfather's protege (Terry McAuliffe). Just like in the movie - the "hit" was very public (in the movie it was during an Italian festival and here it was on national TV).
Just like in the movie - I don't think Hillary had anything to do with the planning or execution of the "hit" (Connie said "Just do it" in the movie). Just like in the movie - the Godfather gets out of the hospital - sees what they have wrought and says "this is not what I wanted".
The only thing that is confusing to me is the fact that in the movie it was clear that the "hit" was on Joe Zasa but here I'm not so sure if the intended target was George W. Bush or John Kerry.
Vincent Mancini : Don Lucchesi, you are a man of finance and politics. These things I don't understand.
Don Lucchesi : You understand guns?
Vincent Mancini : Yes.
Don Lucchesi : Finance is a gun. Politics is knowing when to pull the trigger
Do you recall in Godfather III when Michael (Al Pachino) is unexpectedly hospitalized and in his absence his sister Connie (Talia Shire) authorized a "hit" on Joe Zasa by Vincent (Andy Garcia)?
I think something similar may have happened to cause RatherGate. (Excuse me while I put on my tin-foil hat and pajamas.)
The current Godfather of the Democratic Party gets suddenly hospitalized (Bill Clinton). While he is incapacitated - his wife (who may just as well be his sister at this point with seperate beds and all) authorized a "hit" to be carried out by the Godfather's protege (Terry McAuliffe). Just like in the movie - the "hit" was very public (in the movie it was during an Italian festival and here it was on national TV).
Just like in the movie - I don't think Hillary had anything to do with the planning or execution of the "hit" (Connie said "Just do it" in the movie). Just like in the movie - the Godfather gets out of the hospital - sees what they have wrought and says "this is not what I wanted".
The only thing that is confusing to me is the fact that in the movie it was clear that the "hit" was on Joe Zasa but here I'm not so sure if the intended target was George W. Bush or John Kerry.
Michael Corleone : Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgmentIt may be me but I think certain people's hate of George Bush (hello Dan Rather - I'm talking to you) definitely affected their judgement here.
AL Rookie of the Year
Last night I updated where I see the NL ROY race - so this morning I am doing the same for the AL. My pre-season choice for AL ROY was Bobby Crosby.
1. Lew Ford - Twins
2. Bobby Crosby - A's
3. Justin Morneau - Twins
4. Daniel Cabrera - Orioles
5. Kevin Youkilis - Red Sox
Morneau might be the top pick if he had more AB's but as it stands he had half the AB's of either Ford or Crosby.
Last night I updated where I see the NL ROY race - so this morning I am doing the same for the AL. My pre-season choice for AL ROY was Bobby Crosby.
1. Lew Ford - Twins
2. Bobby Crosby - A's
3. Justin Morneau - Twins
4. Daniel Cabrera - Orioles
5. Kevin Youkilis - Red Sox
Morneau might be the top pick if he had more AB's but as it stands he had half the AB's of either Ford or Crosby.
Tuesday, September 14, 2004
NL Rookie of the Year
I thought it was time to update the race for NL Rookie of the Year (I'll do the AL later). Before I do let me say that pre-season I picked Aaron Miles of the Rockies and as far as I can tell I was the only person on the web (or in print) to make that choice.
1. Jason Bay - Pirates
2. Khalil Greene - Padres
3. Aaron Miles - Rockies
4. Chad Tracy - Diamondbacks
5. Kaz Matsui - Mets
Last time I did this - I had Bay as the fifth pick but only because he had so few AB's at the time.
I thought it was time to update the race for NL Rookie of the Year (I'll do the AL later). Before I do let me say that pre-season I picked Aaron Miles of the Rockies and as far as I can tell I was the only person on the web (or in print) to make that choice.
1. Jason Bay - Pirates
2. Khalil Greene - Padres
3. Aaron Miles - Rockies
4. Chad Tracy - Diamondbacks
5. Kaz Matsui - Mets
Last time I did this - I had Bay as the fifth pick but only because he had so few AB's at the time.
RatherGate
Heh heh
Heh heh 2
Heh heh 3
And from Robert Bidinotto:
Heh heh
Heh heh 2
Heh heh 3
And from Robert Bidinotto:
Judging from the voter polls, and the press releases about campaign "reorganizations" (i. e., staff jumping ship or being hurled overboard), it's getting lonely down there at DNC headquarters. Maybe Michael Moore can be persuaded to put down his junk food for a few weeks and film a documentary of the '04 campaign. He could borrow the plot of "Exodus."
Lessons from the Olympics
Victor Davis Hanson looks at some of the things that may have gone unnoticed at the Olympics.
I would also add that the members who make up the Coalition of the Willing in Iraq won 50.3% of the medals even though they represented just 15% of the participating countries at the Olympics.
Victor Davis Hanson looks at some of the things that may have gone unnoticed at the Olympics.
I would also add that the members who make up the Coalition of the Willing in Iraq won 50.3% of the medals even though they represented just 15% of the participating countries at the Olympics.
Swift Boat Veterans for Kevin Youkilis
Bill James guest blogs at The Hardball Times.
James examines the 162 game schedule and the effect it has on Ichiro's attempt to break George Sisler's record for hits in a season.
Bill James guest blogs at The Hardball Times.
James examines the 162 game schedule and the effect it has on Ichiro's attempt to break George Sisler's record for hits in a season.
The Red Sox Prayer
Isaiah 35:4-7a –
Isaiah 35:4-7a –
Say to those that are of a fearful heart, “Be strong, do not fear! Here is your God. He will come with vengeance, with terrible recompense. He will come and save you.” Then the eyes of the blind shall be opened, and the ears of the deaf unstopped; then the lame shall leap like deer, and the tongue of the speechless sing for joy. For waters shall break forth in the wilderness, and streams in the desert; the burning sand become a pool, and the thirsty ground springs of water.
Miscellaneous Thoughts
1905 - Joe Tinker and Johnny Evers engage in a fistfight on the field during an exhibition game in Washington, Indiana, because Evers took a taxi to the park, leaving his teammates in the hotel lobby. The pair will not speak to each other again for thirty-three years (from TodayinBaseballHistory.com)... It has been just over a year since we lost Johnny Cash. I think Bono put it best when he said, "Locusts and honey ... not since John The Baptist has there been a voice like that crying in the wilderness. ... Every man knows he is a sissy compared to Johnny Cash."... Forget the assualt weapons ban - it's now three years after 9/11 and airline pilots still don’t have the right to carry to carry a gun in the cockpit. That should be unacceptable but it gets little notice... How to Dance Properly... Al Franken needed 14 Harvard research assistants to help him come up with his last book, Lies and the Lying Liars Who Tell Them. Real political satirists like PJ O’Rourke don’t need 14 Harvard research assistants – at most maybe just the assistance of Mr. Jack Daniels. This just reconfirms my belief that not only is Al Franken chronically unfunny and mean spirited – he’s also lazy...
1905 - Joe Tinker and Johnny Evers engage in a fistfight on the field during an exhibition game in Washington, Indiana, because Evers took a taxi to the park, leaving his teammates in the hotel lobby. The pair will not speak to each other again for thirty-three years (from TodayinBaseballHistory.com)... It has been just over a year since we lost Johnny Cash. I think Bono put it best when he said, "Locusts and honey ... not since John The Baptist has there been a voice like that crying in the wilderness. ... Every man knows he is a sissy compared to Johnny Cash."... Forget the assualt weapons ban - it's now three years after 9/11 and airline pilots still don’t have the right to carry to carry a gun in the cockpit. That should be unacceptable but it gets little notice... How to Dance Properly... Al Franken needed 14 Harvard research assistants to help him come up with his last book, Lies and the Lying Liars Who Tell Them. Real political satirists like PJ O’Rourke don’t need 14 Harvard research assistants – at most maybe just the assistance of Mr. Jack Daniels. This just reconfirms my belief that not only is Al Franken chronically unfunny and mean spirited – he’s also lazy...
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