Atlanta Braves

I have seen so many people fixate on the fact that between losing Gary Sheffield and Javy Lopez that the Braves have lost too many runs created or home runs to repeat as NL East Division champs. What people always seem to overlook is the other side of the ledger. Consider:

Last year the Braves led the NL in HR with 235 but they were also 6th in the NL in HR allowed. The year before the Braves were 8th in HR but 2nd in HR allowed. In 2001 they were 10th in HR but 3rd in HR allowed. Each year they won the NL East. Do you see where I'm going with this?

Last year the Braves had two relievers give up double digit HR totals (and a third had 8 HR allowed). You would have to go back to 1996 to find a year when a single pitcher who was primarily a reliever gave up double digits in HR for Atlanta. Not surprisingly - the two guys who gave up double digits and the guy who gave up 8 are no longer with the Braves.

Yes the Braves lost Maddux but did you realize that he led the team in HR allowed with 24? He will be replaced by John Thomson who gave up 27 HR in the DH fueled AL while playing half his games at Arlington. Thomson will most likely give up less than 24 HR because he will be facing pitchers instead of DH mashers and now he gets to play at pitcher friendly Turner Field.

The fifth starter - Shane Reynolds also gave up his share of HR last year (20 to be exact). Reynolds gave up a HR roughly one every 8 innings pitched. This year's fifth starter is bound to do better (Trey Hodge's who is penciled in as the fifth starter by some did not allow a single HR in 65 innings pitched last year).

Simply put - yes the Braves will most likely not have as many HR this year as last but they also won't give up as many. Nobody seems to take this into account.

Last year the Braves led the Phillies in runs scored 907 to 791 (difference of 116 runs). Now the Phillies offense has basically remained the same but the Braves lost Sheffield and Lopez which does make their offense worse but I don't think it will be 116 runs worse and meanwhile I look for the Braves to give up fewer runs to lower their team ERA vs. last year.

What does all this mean to me? The Braves will win the NL East this year (again).