Presidential Baseball

Last night we had the Yankees and the Red Sox (with the Red Sox prevailing 9-6 - ooh-rah!) but we also had an extended TV appearance by Senator John Kerry and I think the appearance probably did him more harm than good.

Kerry threw out the first pitch. He started on the grass in front of the mound and he still bounced the pitch. The last time I saw George H. Bush throw out a first pitch - he threw a strike and he did it from the pitcher's mound and he's 80! After 9/11 when George W. Bush threw out the first pitch at the World Series - he threw it from the mound where a pitch is supposed to be thrown from.

John Kerry is a Red Sox fan but supposedly he has Massachusetts pretty much in his pocket. I can't see his cheerleading for the Red Sox helping him gain any undecided voters in New York - just the opposite. Somehow I don't think Karl Rove would have allowed Bush to put himself in that position. Sure go to the game. Sure throw out the first pitch. But then get up to a sky box where the cameras won't be able to watch you high five Kevin Millar after he hits a home run off Yankee pitching.

Have I mentioned the fact that Kerry was booed last night when he went to throw out the first pitch? Sure there was applause but anyone watching the game on ESPN could clearly hear the boo's. It sounded almost 50/50. Karl Rove wouldn't have allowed that (I keep bringing up Karl Rove because he's the left's third favorite bogeyman after Ashcroft and Cheney - just having some fun).

Maybe Kerry was angling for votes up in New Hampshire which is solidly Red Sox Nation and supposedly still up for grabs among the red staters and blue staters? Sure go after New Hampshire's 4 Electoral College votes but why do it at the potential expense of New York's 36? Just plain dumb.

The current odds on the Presidential election are Bush -$125 and Kerry -$115 (meaning you would have to risk $125 on Bush to win $100 or risk $115 on Kerry to win $100). Even money would be Bush -$120 and Kerry -$120 (with the $20 being the house vig). Things are closer now than at any point since I started monitoring the lines.

I would expect Kerry to get a bump from his convention to either put him even with Bush or a slight -$125 favorite but that won't last long. Bush will get both a bump from his convention in a months time and momentum. Anyone in sales could tell you that in any competitive situation you always be the one who presents last.

The Kerry folks may be counting on Kerry doing well against Bush in the debates but after seeing Kerry get stumped by a Jon Miller softball on Pete Rose (paraphrasing "I know that there is a lot of passion about this especially in Ohio [another state up for grabs BTW] but I think the writers should decide that one"). If Kerry waffles on Pete Rose - what makes anyone think he can handle hardballs about Iran?

If you are a betting man - wait for the line to get to even and then load up on Bush. Money in the bank.