Red Sox Free Agents

Here's where I see the Red Sox going with negotiations with their free agent crop.

1. Pedro Martinez: They have offered 2-years $25.5 million with an option for a third at $13 million.

I think Pedro signs with the Sox. If another team jumps into the bidding and offers a third year - then the Sox will guarantee that third year. If no team steps up to match the Sox offer - then Pedro focuses in on what is needed to guarantee that third year and bonus money (I like the idea of a $3 million bonus for winning the Cy Young, $2 mil for second in the voting and $1 million for third). Pedro will be back next year - I'm sure of that because John Henry and Bill James are HUGE Pedro fans.

It was very smart of the Sox to publicize their offer to Pedro because it set the market and at the same time it showed a great amount of respect to Pedro ($25.5 million is nothing to sneeze at).

2. Jason Varitek: Scott Borias has said it will take 5-years and $50 million to get this done. Boras also asked for a no-trade clause which is a complete no-no with the Sox.

When Boras first made this announcement - I thought that he had made another mistake like last year when he said it would take 3-years and $30 million to sign Kevin Millwood. Then I thought maybe Boras asked Varitek what it would take for him to sign elesewhere and Varitek said 5-years - $50 million (otherwise Jason would take the Sox offer of 3-years $24 million).

I now think that Scott Boras may have inadvertenly trapped his client. Nobody is going to offer 5-years and $50 million - NOBODY. However, now the Red Sox can move in another direction (rumors are Schneider from Washington plus Doug Mirabelli resigning). My gut tells me that the Sox wanted to move in another direction all along and Boras' demand of 5-years $50 million gives them the PR cover to let Varitek walk.

From a business sense it makes plenty of sense.

The Sox can get a Schneider / Mirabelli platoon for $3 million per year and not have much drop off (if any) in production. The $5 million they save at the catcher position can be used at shortstop or for a prime starter (Pavano). Please note that Paul DePodesta was faced with a similar situation when he traded the very popular Paul LoDuca from the Dodgers (like Varitek - LoDuca was an intangibles guy who was the "heart" of the team).

3. Derek Lowe: The only way Derek Lowe is with the Sox in 2005 is if they offer arbitration (which they will) and Lowe accepts (which I don't see happening). I see Lowe getting a 3-year $24 million contract from someone. For Derek's sake - I hope he signs with the Tigers, Dodgers or Mets (he needs a pitcher's park where an occasional long fly ball won't kill him).

4. Orlando Cabrera: It all comes down to how much he likes to win. If he wants to win above all else - he signs with the Sox (for 2 / $16 with an option). If he wants to make his one big payday (and I wouldn't blame him for that) - then he signs elsewhere.

5. Doug Mirabelli: He re-signs - maybe for 2 / $4 million.

6. Scott Williamson: He won't get much of an offer from the Sox but would be a good risk for a team like the Astros or Angels (where he can set up and occasionally close but if he's not healthy - his absense won't kill them).