Hot Stove League - Third Base (Part 2)

You can find Part 1 of the third base analysis here.

These are the teams that should be all-set at third in 2005 and who most likely won't be looking fo do anything in the offseason at this position:

AL: Boston, New York, Cleveland (although with both Aaron Boone and Casey Blake - the Indians may make a trade), Anaheim (good-bye Glaus - hello McPherson), Oakland, Texas

NL: Florida, New York, Philadephia (David Bell is not a strength but he is under contract for 2 more years), Chicago, Houston, Pittsburgh (assuming Mackowiak is regular 3B), St. Louis, San Diego

These are the teams that will definitely be looking to upgrade or replace their third baseman this offseason:

AL: Minnesota (they have to act on Coskie because he's a free agent - they also have Michael Cuddyer ready to take over), Detroit (Eric Munson is not their answer and Tigers may go after a big name), Kansas City (they have to act because Joe Randa is probably gone - as usual, look for KC to try and find a "cost-effective" solution), Seattle (Jolbert Cabrera is not the solution)

NL: Montreal / Washington, Cincinnati (same boat as the Expos), Colorado (they have to act because Vinnie Castilla is a free agent), Los Angeles (they have to act because Andrian Beltre is a free agent)

These are the teams that are in the middle. They may look to upgrade or make a change but third is probably not a priority:

AL: Baltimore (Melvin Mora had a career year in 2004 but he is 32-years old and his glove work is awful), Tampa Bay (BJ Upton? No money to spend on free agents is the problem - they may try to get lucky with the cheap dregs), Toronto (Hinske should be all set but rumors persist that he might be traded), Chicago (Crede is young and cheap but White Sox may look to make splash with free agent)

NL: Atlanta (they have Chipper Jones but Jones can also play OF - with Andy Marte coming up through the system - the Braves won't go after a big name or a long deal with any 3B), Milwaukee, Arizona, San Franciso (Alphonso is under contract for two more years but at a total of $15.5 million - the Giants may want to move that contract)

It should be noted that of the top 10 payroll teams in MLB - only Seattle and Los Angeles will be in the market for a third baseman.

Predictions:

1. The Dodgers either sign Adrian Beltre or they make a trade for Casey Blake of the Indians to fill 3B. Beltre was their MVP this year and he can hit HR at Chavez Ravine (not all players can). I see a 4-year $48 million contract for Beltre from the Dodgers. Who's going to out-bid them? Yankees - they have A-Rod. Red Sox - they have Mueller. Mets - they have Wright. The Dodgers may decide against a big contract and if they do - look for them to trade for Blake from the Indians. The Indians have Boone at 3B in 2005 and they need young starters and the Dodgers have some young starters.

2. Troy Glaus goes to the Mariners. I'd guess 3-years $33 million with an option. Glaus gets to stay on the West coast and the Mariners need a 3B (and if Glaus' body gets cranky - he can DH). The problem may be in Glaus' past performance at SAFECO. He's hit just .176 in 39 games there. If not Seattle - Detroit is a possible landing spot for Glaus.

3. Vinnie Castilla re-signs with the Rockies. He's maybe their most popular player with the fans but he hits poorly outside of Coors Field.

4. If the Diamondbacks cannot sign Richie Sexton - look for them to go after Corey Coskie for 3B and have Shea Hillenbrand become the regular 1B.

5. If the Dodgers don't re-sign Beltre - look for him to wind up with the Tigers. Eric Munson is not the answer for the Tigers and the Tigers get back Damian Easley's money for 2005 to help pay for Beltre.