Hot Stove League - Catcher

Red Sox

Obviously the Red Sox would like to re-sign Jason Varitek but the Sox front office has also shown that they will not overpay for players (see Rod, A-). The Sox will probably offer 3-years $24 million but according to Varitek's agent Scott Boras - it will take 5-years $50 million to get it done.

Normally you could take talk like that from Boras as pure bluster but the fact is Varitek is the only Grade A catcher on the market this year and his services may well fetch that high a price (though I seriously doubt it). If that's the case - thanks for the memories Jason.

Plan B for the Red Sox would be to make Doug Mirabelli their regular guy and get a solid back-up to ease (or equally share) the load. Mirabelli is not a switch hitter like Varitek but he does very good against both lefties and righties (with more power than Varitek if truth be told). There have been rumblings about getting Schneider from Washington or signing Damian Miller to catch Schilling - an idea that has merit (Miller was Schilling's catcher in AZ).

Personally - I would like to see Varitek back but I don't want to see the Sox overpay. Plan B works just fine for me.

Top 10 Catchers in MLB

1. Ivan Rodriguez
2. Jorge Posada
3. Victor Martinez
4. Jason Varitek
5. Javy Lopez
6. Jason Kendall
7. Johnny Estrada
8. Paul LoDuca
9. Mike Piazza (so low because no longer really a full-time catcher)
10. Mike Lieberthal

Top Free Agent Catchers

1. Jason Varitek
2. Everybody else

There are 27 other catchers available other than Varitek but the drop off in talent is major. The closest in talent may actually be Varitek's back-up Doug Mirabelli.

Here are the teams that should be all-set in terms of a catcher:

AL: New York (although for some reason Posada trade rumors are rampant), Baltimore (although they may pick up a quality back-up for Lopez who is not a defensive whiz), Minnesota, Cleveland, Detroit, Texas, Kansas City (they got Buck for Beltran and Buck gets his chance this year)

NL: Atlanta, New York (but who knows with the Mets - anything is possible), Philadelphia, Florida (assuming they offer LoDuca arbitration), San Diego, Cincinnati (with LaRue's signing - all-set)

These are the teams that will definitely be doing something this off-season:

AL: Boston, Chicago, Oakland

NL: Los Angeles, St. Louis, Chicago (but I'm assuming Barett is re-signed)

These are teams that may stand pat or who may make a move.

AL: Tampa Bay, Toronto (Cash is still young but will they have patience?), Seattle, Anaheim

NL: Houston, Coloroado (definitely trying to move Johnson but they already have two decent catchers), San Francisco (Pierzynski not a clubhouse favorite), Washington/Montreal, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Arizona

Predictions

1. Jason Varitek does NOT re-sign with the Red Sox

2. The Dodgers and Pirates work out a Jason Kendall for Shawn Green trade with the Pirates kicking in about $6 million extra. Of course both players would have to waive their no-trade clause which is where a third party comes in to take Green who probably would prefer not to play in the Steel City.

3. Look for 8-10 of the free agents to re-sign with the clubs they played for this year in a "devil you know" arrangement.

4. Michael Barrett re-signs with the Cubs (one of the "devil you know guys")

5. The market for Varitek is not what the pundits believe. The Dodgers traded away LoDuca - why would they sign free agent Varitek who is a similar player? Billy Beane in Oakland is not a Varitek fan - so don't expect them to make a bid. The White Sox and St. Louis are possibilities but they have other priorities they need to address first. The Mets may step up but I believe that all that Ranger talk is generated by Boras.

Here's the thing - the Sox won't wait and if Varitek doesn't accept their 3-year $24 million offer - then they will go to plan B. At that point the teams interested in Varitek will wait to see if Varitek is offered arbitration (and thus would cost a first rounder). Meanwhile, teams will be spending their available cash on other priorities (mostly pitching) and maybe a few teams drop out of the running because they spent their available cash.

In the end - Varitek will sign with someone for 3-years / $24 million and if it's not Boston - then Scott Boras will have serious egg on his face and Varitek will forever be coupled with the names Bruce Hurst and Fred Lynn.