Sunday, June 05, 2005

The State of the Red Sox

This is the first in a series of three or four reports on where the Red Sox stand, what they've done well and areas where they need to expand.

Today I'm going to take a look at the catcher and infield positions.

Catcher: I thought that Pedro Martinez was the must sign free agent from last year. The Red Sox brass thought that Jason Varitek was the must sign free agent. The Red Sox were right.

Don't get me wrong - I still believe that the pitching coach has more to do with the success or failure of the pitching staff than the catcher. And I still believe that Pedro should have ended his Hall of Fame career in Boston. However, Varitek has proven to truly be the heart of the team and this season there hasn't been a catcher more productive in the AL (Varitek has 10 HR, a .310 BA and a .925 OPS). Couple that with the fact that there wasn't really an alternative to signing Varitek (whereas Clement, Wells and Miller were available to fill the spots left open by Pedro and Derek Lowe) - and Varitek clearly was the must sign free agent from last season.

Doug Mirabelli is perhaps the best back-up catcher in baseball - so the Sox should be set at catcher (barring injury) for the next two years. This means that top catching prospect Kelly Stoppach will probably be moved if a top chip is needed to complete a mid-season trade. Personally, I don't see Stoppach as developing into anything more than a back-up (this generation's Bob Montgomery).

Overall - there can be no complaint made on Sox catching so far this year.

First Base: Kevin Millar and first base has been the biggest problem area for the Red Sox this year. I didn't fall off the Millar bandwagon and I'm also not swayed by the fact that he had two home runs yesterday. I thought Millar was a better choice than Doug Mientkiewicz but I also thought that there was plenty of room for improvement at first.

Millar has just a .703 OPS this year. He's getting old, he's slow and he's no wiz with the glove. What's to like? Kevin Youkilis is an on-base machine with more power potential than Millar (who contrary to poplar opinion - has never been a power hitter). John Olerud is also an on-base machine who also happens to have gold-glove caliber fielding ability.

Millar is a free agent after his season and I hope we don't see him back. Nothing personal - just business. In fact, I hope to see less and less of him this year. Youkilis can also play third (and maybe second) - so flexibility is clearly in Youkilis' favor (don't give me the "oh but Millar can play the outfield" argument because Millar is awful in the outfield). Olerud will probably start to get more and more appearances - especially as a late inning defensive replacement.

The two things working against Youkilis are:

1. He still has options left - so the Sox can send him down to Pawtucket if roster space gets premium.

2. Millar is considered a "veteran" presence and there is a fear he may "sulk" and become a negative presence.

Neither of these reasons hold water with me. If Youkilis can help the team more than someone who is out of options - screw the guy out of options. This team is too good to be playing these roster games. And if Millar sulks and pouts - screw him. He's making millions and producing literally below the level of a replacement level or bench player. Sit Millar down and explain to him how lucky he is to be associated with the team. If he pouts - send him to another team for a box of baseballs.

I would not rule out a mid-season upgrade at first either. Mike Sweeney, Sean Casey or Lyle Overbay will be available. Even Tony Clark would an upgrade.

Let me stress that every team in the American League has gotten more production out of their starting first baseman this season than Boston. Every single team!

Second Base: Mark Bellhorn is Harvey Dent. He's got his evil side that strikes out more than any other player in the American League. He aso has his good side that gets on base at a very respectable clip and who seems to almost always come up big with the clutch hit. Bellhorn is Jeckyl and Hyde.

Bellhorn has been a good value for the Sox but by no means is he the best 2nd baseman in the American League as some people like to thnk. I would rate Soriano (Rangers), Roberts (Orioles), Iguchi (White Sox) and Hudson (Blue Jays) ahead of Bellhorn (and maybe Belliard in Cleveland). Not sure what the Sox could do to upgrade here for this season.

Next season I would look for the Sox to offer Bellhorn a one-year deal and / or arbitration with Dustin Pedroia making the roster to either back-up Bellhorn or win the job out-right.

Short Stop: Edgar Renteria got off to a slow start and there was some grumbling and even some booing but Renteria has been showing lately why is so highly thought of. I'd put Renteria in the top 5 among shortstops in the AL (with Tejada being far and away number 1).

Renteria is here for three more years - so it will be interesting to see what they do with top prospect Hanley Ramirez. Does Ramirez move to second or center? Or does he get a full year at Pawtucket or get traded. Interesting side story to keep an eye on.

Third Base: When healthy, Bill Mueller is as much the heart of the Red Sox as Jason Varitek. He leads by example. Nobody works harder or has less of an ego than Mueller. There's a reason his nickname is "the Professional". He seems to be healthy now and I'm willing to say that he'll finish the season over .300.

Youkilis gives the Sox a back-up that could start for 75% of the teams in baseball. Mueller is a free agent and I would like to see him back for another year but the Sox may decide that Youkilis has waited long enough to be a starter. Then again - maybe the Sox decide that Youkilis would fit well at first base.

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