What if Russia Wins?

Interesting look at potentially what would be the scenarios if Russia wins in Ukraine.

I disagree with a few points. For example, "The election of Donald Trump [in 2024] or of a Trumpian candidate might destroy the transatlantic relationship at Europe's hour of maximum peril." This opinion completely disregards the fact that Crimea was annexed by Russia under the Obama Administration and this current crisis was invited by the weakness of the Biden Administration. Trump actually seemed to have a good relationship with Putin with clear boundaries and Trump was also good at getting NATO members to spend their fair share on defense spending (a move that seems prescient now).

Both Turkey and Germany seem unwilling to invoke or participate in Article 5 if Ukraine is invaded (which is fair enough since Ukraine is not a member of NATO).

The article also doesn't emphasize what a war in Ukraine could do to the world food supply. Ukraine provides 12% of the world's wheat and 16% of the world's corn. Both Russia and China have trouble enough feeding their people as is. If there was a war in Ukraine - people in both Russia and China will have trouble putting food on the table which will end up stressing the government's of both Putin and Xi Jinping as hungry people make for angry people. 

My guess is Putin is playing the Biden Administration to gain some concessions. Putin will probably wind down the show of force after the Nord Stream pipeline is completed. Hell the way things are today Putin can do all this saber rattling - get what he wanted all along and then get rewarded with a Nobel Peace Prize as the kicker.