Red Sox ZiPS Projections

Nice summary - with emphasis on JD Drew - on how the Red Sox project using ZiPS Projections. I too am on record for thinking that JD Drew will rebound this year and I used almost the same reasoning as Evan Brunell:

I’m here to tell you that J.D. Drew will be better than ever in 2008.

How could he not be? Free of the pressures of adapting to a new home, the medical woes of his son and trying to win a World Series for a historically-challenged team? He’s done it all, and he did it all in the same year.

Not sure I agree with the "historically-challenged" part but everything else - 100% agreement.

Some other thoughts regarding the ZiPS Projections:

- I think the projections for Manny Ramirez will be way off. They say 23 HR but I'm saying 30+ HR based upon my "gut" projections.

- The projections have a total of 63 wins for Red Sox starters. Last year the top 5 starters for the Red Sox had 69 wins. I don't see that number decreasing to 63. I see it in the 70's.

- I think the projections for Curt Schilling are way off. The ZiPS Projections have him at 11-10 with a 4.25 ERA. I'm not getting where that ERA is coming from. Last year Schilling had a bad June (5.79 ERA) but then he shut it down for the whole month of July and when he came back as a "finesse" pitcher he was very effective (a 3.34 ERA in 9 post All-Star starts). Even with the awful June numbers - Schilling still had a 3.87 ERA for the year. I'm not saying Schilling will challenge for the ERA title next year but I do think his ERA will be better than the 4.25 being projected.