Political Prediction

If the nation is heading towards a new debt crisis as the very respected Ray Dalio has predicted - and if it happens in the next two years - then Donald Trump is almost guaranteed to be re-elected in 2020.

Now that the Democrats have re-taken the US House of Representatives and especially if Nancy Pelosi is made Speaker once again - if a debt crisis happens (no matter the cause) - the Democrats will take the brunt of the blame in people's minds.

"The economy was doing great until the 'crazies' took control of the House" will be the talking point of every Republican up for election in 2020. Correlation will absolutely equal causation in the political ads. And President Trump will once again echo "Jobs Not Mobs" as THE campaign slogan of 2020.

I'm certainly not rooting for a debt crisis. And I agree that to avoid this all the Democrats would have to do is not be crazy. But I'm a realist - thus the prediction. Donald Trump will be a two-term President.