Massachusetts Politics

I just wanted to jot out a few thoughts on the state of politics in Massachusetts this morning. I'll probably be doing a few more posts along the same lines up to the elections.

This morning I wanted to look at the race for governor in the Bay State.

The latest polls show Democrat Deval Patrick with a big lead over Republican Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey. This is not surprising and I expect Patrick to be elected come November 7th. Some observations:

- Perhaps the biggest advantage Patrick has that has not really been commented on is the fact that he has Worcester Mayor Tim Murray on the ticket as Lieutenant Governor. Tim is popular and guys like me would consider voting for Patrick just because we like Tim Murray. Meanwhile you could point a gun at my head and I still could not tell you who is on the ticket with Kerry Healey. I expect Patrick to win big in Central Massachusetts because of the Murray factor.

- Healey has been running negative ads about Patrick's work as an attorney (he had/has an affinity for pretty violent criminals including cop killers). In my opinion Healey has over-done these ads. Just air them a couple of times so people get the idea. No need to hammer people over the head with them. Instead Healey should have been running ads about how the citizens of Massachusetts elect Republican governors because Democrats can't be trusted with the purse strings when having both the State House and the Governor's office. The fear of a return to Taxachusetts should have been her main message.

- If / when Healey loses - then some will portray this as a failure of Mitt Romney to supply sufficient coat-tails. This is true to a minor extent but the damage will be short term. Overall a Patrick victory will be good for Romney in the long run. If things get worse under Patrick then Romney will be able to point to Massachusetts as evidence of how the country can't afford to have a tax and spend Democrat in the corner office. If things stay the same or even improve - Romney can point out that he did all the heavy lifting to lay the groundwork of prosperity in the Commonwealth.

- If / when Healey loses - then all the major offices for Massachusetts will be held by Democrats. The Governor's office, both Senate seats and all 10 Congressional Districts will be held by Democrats.