Thursday, October 05, 2006

Political Odds

Two interesting political proposition bets to consider.

First - lets take another look at Joe Lieberman's chances of winning re-election this November as an independent. Today the odds of him winning re-election are:

YES [winning the election] -$280
NO [losing election] +$185

That means you would have to risk $280 to win $100 betting that Lieberman wins and risk just $100 to win $185 saying he'll lose. These odds are interesting because just two weeks ago (September 21) the odds were:

YES [winning the election] -$135
NO [losing election] -$105

That was almost even money that he'd win or lose. Today's odds make Lieberman a huge favorite to win re-election. Today's odds also return Lieberman to roughly the same odds he was at back on August 24th. I have no idea what caused the odds to dip two weeks ago or what caused them to return to the level that probably should have been at today. It's curious to say the least.

Another interesting political proposition bet is whether House Speaker Dennis Hastert will resign from his position as Speaker of the House by October 31st, 2006.

YES [he'll resign] Even
NO [he won't resign] -$140

I really haven't been following the Congressman Foley affair (because I have a life) so I don't really have an opinion on this but I thought I'd pass it on.

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