Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Ripples from a Non-Trade

The recent non-trade of Todd Helton to the Red Sox is one of those rare instances where both teams are better off having announced trade talks but not actually making the trade. Don't believe me? Take a look at how just talking trade may have affected the players and teams involved:

Red Sox Players

- Kevin Youkilis was affected because he would have had to move from 1st to 3rd and probably would have dropped from #2 in the order to the bottom third. He probably ended up taking an emergency number of ground balls at third once the talks were announced. Jelly (Youkilis' initials are K-Y) is probably the least affected by the talks but look for him to be better prepared to play 3rd than he would have been.

- Mike Lowell is a veteran and I'm sure used to trade talks. But it should be pointed out that he played Gold Glove defense at 3rd last year but also tired at the end of the season. This year I expect the defense to be just as good but I also expect Lowell to post better offensive numbers for two reasons:

1. This is his contract year and players almost magically always post better numbers in their contract year.

2. The Red Sox will need to get Wily Mo Pena and Eric Hinske at bats and that means Lowell will probably get more rest this season and hopefully that means he'll be more fresh at the end of the season. (Note - Lowell was second on the team in AB with 573 last year - he should still get over 500 if he stays healthy but cutting down 25-50 AB should help the 33-year old Lowell.)

- Julian Tavarez was perhaps the Red Sox' best starter last September. With two starters over 40-years old, one starter new to the rigors of starting in MLB, one starter coming off the only 200 IP season of his career and the last starter converted from closer because his arm hurt - I think it is a good bet that the Red Sox will need another starter at some point this season. Tavarez went 3-0 with a 3.52 ERA in 5 September starts. That's great insurance but that may only be the icing on the cake. It should be remembered that Tavarez is perhaps Manny Ramirez's best friend on the team and keeping Manny happy may also help keep Manny productive.

- Manny Delcarmen is the local boy living the dream of playing for the local nine. The saying goes, "You don't know what you have till you lose it" and MDC almost lost his dream job. He'll probably savor every game and make sure he doesn't falter. Manny Delcarmen just got a wake-up call.

- Craig Hansen can now tell his grand kids that the Red Sox thought so much of him that they wouldn't trade him for a Hall of Fame first baseman. Perhaps Hansen's biggest problem last year was confidence and this non-trade had to have been a tremendous shot of confidence to the young Hansen.

The Red Sox as an Organization

In the week before the Super Bowl the Red Sox dominated the local sports news with this non-trade, Curt Schilling announcing he would pitch in 2008, and the Roush Racing NASCAR arrangement. Could it be a coincidence that their tickets also went on sale this week? The Red Sox are proving to be PR masters and it is no coincidence that news of the potential trade leaked when the MO for the Sox is to play things close to the vest in trade negotiations.

The Rockies

The Rockies almost pulled a reverse Ray Bourque - sending a beloved veteran player from Colorado to Boston so that he could have a chance at a championship. They were just doing this for the player who had given so much to the organization. They too got some pretty good PR out of this whole affair. What they also did was set the price for a contending team to acquire Todd Helton at the trade deadline. Now it is known throughout MLB that the Rockies will pick up half the contract of Todd Helton in exchange for a top pitching prospect from a contending team that Helton will agree to be traded to.

All's well that ends well I guess.


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