New Year's Day Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

Note to future self - never bet week 17 NFL games again. And also never, ever bet on or against the Ravens. They find a way to screw me every time... Interesting look at how Canada's foreign policy had a horrible year. Horrible year... Has to be noted that Baltimore has not made the playoffs since Deflategate. The karma is very real... This is true... My New Year's resolution is if I see anyone driving a new luxury car with a big red bow - I'm going to do my best to run that car off the road... USA! USA! USA!... Today is Elin Nordegren's 38th birthday. I'm there for you Elin if you need any comforting. I'm there for you baby!...

NFL Sunday - Week 15

Went to the game in Miami last Monday. It was my fifth straight season going down to see the Patriots play the Dolphins in Miami. New England is just 1-4 in those games including a 27-20 loss last week. It was cold in Miami and I and a bunch of other middle-age guys were caught wearing shorts and not enough layers for the temperatures in the 40's. But it could have been worse.

The news this week was about a potential XFL reboot. I really don't see it happening. One of the major problems the NFL has is over-saturation. More games won't make that situation any better.

Today I like the following:

Pats -2.5 at Pittsburgh.

Rams +1 at Seattle.

San Fran -2.5 vs Titans

Good luck!

NFL Sunday - Week 12

The optimists would say the word to describe the NFL these days is "parity". The pessimists would say the word to describe the NFL these days is "mediocrity". I find myself more and more in the pessimists camp regarding the NFL. I mean just look at today's schedule of games. The only game even remotely interesting today is the Saints vs the Rams. The rest of the schedule to be honest is crap. You have 4 games that have 10+ point spreads. That's slightly more than 30% of the games expected to be blowouts. It's crap.

One of the expected blowouts is the Dolphins at the Patriots. God help me but I'll be watching that. Every damn play I'll be watching. I'm at the point where I'm starting to wonder if my interest in the NFL has become tied to Tom Brady and Bill Belichick to the point where I'm not sure if my interest in the NFL will survive when those two decide to call it quits.

I'm not even going to pick any games this week because the choices are all crap.

NFL Sunday - Week 11

Football great Herschel Walker has come out against NFL players protesting during the anthem. Once again helping to keep the issue in the public eye. An issue the NFL would dearly love to see go away. As an aside - Herschel Walker and the Hanukkah Goblins would be a great name for a band.

The anthem protest, Jerry Jones vs Goodell, CTE, declining TV ratings, Jim Irsay as human butt-plug - none of these issues are going away and now there's a new wrinkle to deal with.

Most people have focused on the impact unreimbursed employee business expenses under President Trump's new tax plan would effect teachers but it would also impact NFL players. So far this year NFL players have been fined $2.1 million but those fines are currently deductible expenses. Under the new plan - not so much. This could loom as another brick in the wall against Roger Goodell's judge, jury and executioner style justice and another big issue when the contract between the NFL and NFLPA comes up.

Scrap Roger Goodell as Commissioner already! He's clearly part of the problem not the solution. Why can't these supposed great businessmen who own NFL teams see that?

I've been so crap this year on my picks that I actually went 1-1 last week and my winning percentage went up! Now 6-16-1 on the season. Here's today's picks (I'm due for a big week ).

Baltimore -2 at Green Bay - Lord help me I'm betting on Joe Flacco.

Kansas City -9.5 at NY Giants - taking two teams coming off their bye week.

New England -6.5 vs Raiders (in Mexico City) - got that Pats earlier in the week. Line's now up to Pats -7.5. I'm guessing great American Tom Brady will once again wear this decal on his helmet and Pats are undefeated when he does that.

NFL Sunday - Week 10

Jerry Jones doesn't want Roger Goodell's contract extended and he's willing to sue the NFL to keep this from happening. The other owners probably don't realize it but Jones is doing them a large favor. Extending Roger Goodell's contract is a horrible idea. Goodell has been a huge failure as Commissioner. Fixing what's wrong with the NFL starts with acknowledging that Roger Goodell has to go.

The next step to fixing the NFL would be to hire Condoleezza Rice as his replacement. Domestic abuse? You just hired a woman commissioner. Black lives matter? You just hired an African-American as the top person in the NFL. Problem with the NFL's optics as disrespecting of the US military? You just hired a person whose popularity among the military is among the highest there is. Pretty much all of the problems facing the NFL would immediately be lessened by her hiring. Extending Goodell would just exacerbate the problems.

Jones is trying to save the NFL owners from themselves. Maybe if a large advertiser like Budweiser stepped up and said unequivocally - extend Roger Goodell and we are all done advertising with the NFL would be the kick the other owners need to avoid this disaster. Ad prices are down 6.7% all of these controversies. Extending Goodell's contract isn't going to help that either.

Another NFL owner making news is Colts owner Jim Irsay who is a fraud of a human being. Potentially Irsay could be facing a fraud class action suit because of the way he strung season ticket holders along with misleading information about star QB Andrew Luck. Irsay is maybe the most unlikable person in the NFL. And that's saying something.

One of the best examples of ESPN losing their way was Jon Gruden's "Turkey Hole". How did cutting away from the live action during a key turnover to show a pre-produced "skit" align with ESPN's mission statement of "To serve sports fans,. Anytime. Anywhere."? Hint - it doesn't. I just hope the folks at the Urban Dictionary come up with a suitable definition for "Jon Gruden's Turkey Hole".

Anyway - on to the picks. Once again let me remind you that I'm just 5-15-1 on the season so you'd probably be better off throwing a dart against the wall then listening to me.

Dallas +3.5 at Atlanta - feel that the Cowboys are just the better overall team.

Two team moneyline parley - Patriots and Rams risking $200 to win $100

Good luck

NFL Sunday - Week 9

So last week I wondered about what would happen if a major advertiser pulled out of sponsoring the NFL and I also laid blame of most of the NFL's problems at the forehead feet of Peyton Manning and what do you know. Papa John's blamed advertising with the NFL for the company's sluggish revenues. Shots fired. From the official pizza sponsor of the NFL!  Some trace Papa John's "rant" against the NFL to Jerry Jones, owner of the Cowboys who also owns 94 Papa John's franchises. But keeping in mind the common thread of suckitude - Peyton Manning also owns 32 Papa John's. If you love the NFL and America - it's your duty to boo Peyton Manning whenever you see him.

Some (like me) suggest the ratings drop is primarily due to people "cutting the cord" and getting rid of cable. Others are blaming the ratings drop on crappy Thursday night and crappy early Sunday morning London games diluting the product. Others are staying away from the violence of the NFL because of the damage caused by CTE. Some are boycotting the NFL over the National Anthem protests by the players. A controversy that's not going away. Whatever the reason viewers are abandoning the NFL and they aren't coming back.

On another front President Donald Trump's war on the NFL took another turn as the proposed new tax codes hits the NFL in another vulnerable spot - the NFL's penchant for blackmailing cities into ponying up tax dollars for new stadiums.  Viscerally Trump has hit the NFL in its two weakest spots - protests over the National Anthem and tax dollars for billionaire team owners. You have to hand it to him its a genius move. Is Trump finally getting revenge from the NFL for what they did to the USFL? I mean Trump can easily negotiate away some other proposed unpopular tax code changes but what elected Congressman or Senator is going to bat for the NFL these days and still remain electable? Genius.

Anyway on to the picks for the day. With a season record of 4-14-1 there's nowhere to go but up!

Dallas -.2.5 vs Kansas City

A two team moneyline parlay on the Eagles and Seahawks (risking $200 to win $140). Go birds!

Good luck.

NFL Sunday - Week 8

The man holding the sign may have a point. I haven't done the research but I'm guessing the NFL's decline in ratings probably starting going down right about the time Peyton Manning's grotesque forehead starting polluting the airways in thousands and thousands of cringe-worthy commercials. Everything bad in the NFL can in some way be blamed on Manning. So if you love the NFL and are a good American - you should boo Peyton Manning whenever you see him. 

I have to wonder but if a business announced that they were no longer advertising with the NFL because of the anthem controversy  - would the public perception of that business be positive? I think it would. The company could enjoy a bump in good PR while at the same time saving those monies that would have been spent on commercials.

With wheelchair bound President George HW Bush having to apologize for patting a girls butt - I can see the following future NFL scenario; an openly gay NFL player files a harassment suit saying his teammates and coaches often pat him on the behind after good plays. It's coming.

First they denied there was a TV ratings problem, then they said the National Anthem protests had nothing to do with the ratings decline. Now they are justifying the rating decline by saying that it's less a decline than the rest of prime-time TV. Whistling by the graveyard.

On a nice note - you may have missed this but my favorite part of last week's games was Tom Brady high-fiving 200 military service members before the game with the Falcons.

On the year my picks are 3-12-1 on the season so maybe fade them. Good thing this is for entertainment purposes only.

Today I'll take the Pats/Chargers over of 49, Dallas -2.5 at Washington, and  Atlanta -6.5 at the Jets.

Good luck.

NFL Sunday - Week Five

The Jetsons might have nailed the future of the NFL when back in 1962 they envisioned that football in the future would be played by robots. You don't have to worry about robots saying something stupid about women reporters and the word "route". You also don't have to worry about fans getting angry at a robot protesting during the national anthem. Nobody will care if a robot damages his dome with a big hit. And biggest of all - you don't have to pay robots massive salaries.

With drone racing gaining in popularity, E-sports being the new next big thing, and sex robots becoming so realistic - things seem to be aligning for a future that includes robots replacing human beings as the gridiron gladiators. In the future maybe MIT vs Cal Tech will be the biggest rivalry in college football.

Anyway - looking at today's slate of NFL games one is reminded of a dumpster fire. But hey - who are we kidding? We are going to watch the games and if we are going to watch a sporting event - money will be wagered. Here's my picks for today (I hope you are betting against me every week):

Buffalo +3 at Cincinnati - buy the half point for +3.5 because this game feels like it will be settled by a field goal. 

Tennessee -1 at Miami - two words "Jay Cutler"

San Francisco +2 at Indianapolis - I'm taking three road teams? No wonder my record is 2-8 for the season.

Good luck.

NFL Sunday - Week Four

In the NFL vs Trump - Trump won. It's that simple.

Or is it? The playing of the National Anthem and the American flag since 9/11 have been associated with supporting the military. Our volunteer military. Disrespecting the anthem is the same in many eyes as disrespecting the sacrifice of our men and women in uniform. That doesn't sit well with most people. The NFL learned this lesson loud and clear last week.

People are sick of being preached to. News channels with a certain bias - click! I have other things to do. Hollywood movies with a liberal message? No thanks I'll stay home instead. Concerts where the singer decides they will preach their political message instead of singing the hits? Fuck you - shut and sing. A sporting event where the players disrespect the flag? Let me see how loudly I can Boooo!

Football has become better to watch on TV than in person for many reasons. Having the teams protesting during the National Anthem is one more reason for people not to go. Going to the games in person are no longer a must-experience event. But games on TV basically make the NFL a long running TV series. People eventually get sick of watching TV series - no matter how much they love the series. I stopped watching The Simpsons and South Park not because I stopped enjoying watching but because both had been on the TV for so damn long. Could the NFL become another TV series people get sick of watching?

The NFL has been tone deaf for at least the entire tenure of Roger Goodell. I can't think of a CEO of a Fortune 500 company who has had a worse record. Handling of BountyGate? Alienated the New Orleans fans. Handling of domestic violence? Yeah right. DeflateGate? Patriots fans HATE Roger Goodell (I'm Exhibit A). San Diego moving so LA could have two team? I think the half-filled soccer stadium for Chargers games speaks for itself on how that's working. I can't believe Roger Goodell hasn't been fired.

Anyhow - here's my picks for today:

Patriots -9 vs Panthers - taking the Pats. (Also I teased the Pats to -3 with the over in the game down to 42.5 points.)

Jaguars -3 at Jets - Jacksonville just seems like the much better team.

2-6 for the season. Maybe the time has come for you to start taking the other side on all my picks? Or is today the point my record starts turning around?

Good luck.

NFL Sunday - Week One

JJ Watt has now raised over $31 million for disaster and flood relief for the City of Houston and other surrounding affected areas. $31 million! How can you not be rooting for him and the Houston Texans as they take on the Jaguars today? I'm not going to bet on the Texans because I don't want worrying about covering the 5 points soil my rooting experience.

Speaking of the $31 million Watt has raised (and he's not done yet) for Hurricane Harvey relief - compare that to the roughly $50 million raised during the celebrity telethon for Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Some of the biggest Hollywood names and musical stars were able to raise a combined $50 million while JJ Watt by himself has raised $31 million and counting. Incredible!

I would be remiss if I didn't mention Kayne West's comment during that celebrity telethon that "George Bush doesn't care about black people" and the media's letting that slide without any sort of condemnation is one of the reasons we have Trump as President today. If in the media's mind everyone's a racist then eventually in the public's mind nobody is.

Today I like Atlanta giving 6.5 vs the Bears. Yes I know the game is in Chicago and on grass but Mike Glennon is starting at QB for the Bears.

I also like Pittsburgh giving 9 vs the Browns. Yes that's a lot of points but the Steelers are motivated by a lot of things (the rivalry, the Browns starting a rookie QB and Joe Hayden getting cut by the Browns and signing with Pittsburgh). Another factor is New England's loss is also a wake-up call to Pittsburgh not to be complacent. That's a message I'm sure Steelers coach Mike Tomlin has made loud and clear. The only thing that bothers me is everyone seems to be picking the Steelers today.

Speaking of the Pats - yes the loss was a tremendous let-down and yes the team looked flat and unprepared. And yes I wasn't a fan of Mark Wahlberg pre-game presentation. But even more disgusting is the sports talk radio that the loss was sure to generate. Like puss to an uncleaned wound.

The Pats will be fine and I'll be sure to avoid the puss that calls itself Boston sports talk radio.

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

Am I a bad person because I laughed at this?... If I had a brewery that competed against Heineken - I would have a commercial of two skunks drinking Heineken saying things like Heineken is their favorite beer and how you don't even have to leave it out in the sun for hours to get it to the way skunks like their beer... Space Shuttle breaching the clouds... I really think many Red Sox fans are paying more attention to how Pawtucket is doing in the AAA playoffs than how Boston is doing in MLB... The word "alamo" is Spanish for the cottonwood tree. "Remember the Cottonwood" just doesn't have the same ring as a rallying cry though... Kinda like the Eagles (+3) and the under (54) tonight. If the line goes to 3.5 then I'd love Philadelphia in this game. Everyone and their brother seems to like the over which is a good time to go the other way...

The NFL Middle

Tonight's first game of the 2014 NFL season is an excellent match-up. The Super Bowl Champs Seahawks at home vs MVP candidate Aaron Rogers and the Green Bay Packers. If you were going to bet the game - who to choose? Green Bay is getting 5.5 points and the over / under is 46.5 points. The game could go either way - making this a perfect type game to play "the middle".

If you make the following 4 bets - you would create a big ole middle ground where I think there's a sweet spot for tonight's game:

6-point Tease - Seattle plus under
6-point Tease - Seattle plus over
6-point Tease - Packers plus under
6-point Tease - Packers plus over.

If you bet $100 on each - the most you could win would be $400 but the most you could lose is $200 (at least one of the bets has to come in). The benefit is you are creating a middle where as long as Seattle wins but not by more than 12 points and the total score is between 40.5 points to 52.5 points - you win! Even if Green Bay wins the game but the score remains between 40.5 and 52.5 for the total - you don't lose any money!

NFL Betting

It's that time of year again. The NFL season is upon us and the madness to make NFL bets willy-nilly will soon descend upon many of us. Before you succumb to the the beast consider these two recent posts on NFL betting.

First - when it comes to spotting trends - only a fool will think he's uncovered something Las Vegas wasn't aware of.

Second - only 8 QB's in history (with at least 100 starts) would have made money for you ATS.  And the best of all-time ATS - Joe Montana - would have only made you $3,580 after risking $18,700 (assuming $100 bet on each regular season start). That's not much of a return on investment. And that's on the greatest ATS QB in history! If you bet every Tom Brady regular season start you would only have a profit of $2,930 on $19,100 put at risk.

If you are going to bet - bet for fun and not because you think you'll be able to make it a part time job.

Friday Morning Links

Some interesting reading on a Friday morning.

- Michaela Murphy and THE Kennedy's (PDF) - very amusing story

- The Philosophy of Knish - giving Joey Knish from Rounders his just due

- How the NFL mismatches have been killing the sportsbooks - though I fully expect people to turn around and give that money right back to Vegas or Joey Bag-o-donuts.

- Interesting look at the strange happenings in the Northwest where seven human feet in sneakers have been found washed up on shore in the past 2 years

Flotsam and Jetsam

Miscellaneous thoughts and observations.

This weekend plus last night's win by Minnesota the home teams in the NFL were 12-2 straight up and 12-2 against the spread. Just saying... Now I'm hungry for BLT sandwiches. Hmmmm bacon... The funniest Tweet during last night's game came via Bill Simmons, "Salvatore from "Mad Men" puts more pressure on his wife for sex than Green Bay's getting on Favre"... Minnesota now has 118 points scored on the season putting them behind only the New Orleans Saints (144) and surprise the Baltimore Ravens (124) on the season... Separated at birth? Vikings coach Brad Childress and Gavin McLeod in Kelly's Heroes... Quote for the day, "Sir, there is nothing which has yet been contrived by man, by which so much happiness is produced as by a good tavern" - Samuel Johnson... Interesting breakdown on how the Obamas broke the three main rules of selling when trying to pitch Chicago to the IOC... Another solid quote via Bill Simmons, "Has there ever been a uniform number that so perfectly describes a player's performance as JaMarcus Russell's No. 2?"... Interesting rundown on the 2009 Poker Hall of Fame candidates by Dr. Pauly....

Giving New Meaning to the Phrase "For Entertainment Purposes Only"

I just read the "picks" from both major Boston papers and while entertaining - the results could be better if the games were picked by stoned armadillos.

Jim McCabe of the Boston Globe - on the season 13-16-2 in his picks.

Jim Lazar of the Boston Herald - Overall he's 17-12-3 but last week he was 6-9-1. To put that in perspective - if you bet $100 on each game he picked then you would be up $380 for the season (with the vig accounted for). However, you would have won big in week one and maybe spent some of that money on a nice dinner at a fancy restaurant or on a snazzy shirt (and yes I did just use the word "snazzy" - I also still say dungarees). Last week you would have lost $390 - so chances are in real dollars you'd be lucky to be even right now.

"Double D" of the Boston Herald - he's 13-16-3 for the season.

IM Bettor of the Boston Herald - he only picks a couple of games per week but for the season he's just 2-2 and minus a mythical $150.

Combined these guys are 45-46-8. How can anyone take these guys seriously? If they are going to treat their picks as a joke and just try to crack wise - then either paper would be much better off just paying the money to get Norman Chad's syndicated column. Although to be fair - Jim Lazar's results so far aren't half bad.