Saturday, December 11, 2004

Derek Lowe

I've been thinking a lot about Derek Lowe since Sandy mentioned the possibility of him going to the Atlanta Braves. Here's what I think will most likely happen with Derek Lowe:

1. He signs with Detroit for a little better than 3-years and $21 million. Lowe is from Michigan, the Tigers play in a pitcher friendly park and the Tigers need to sign someone. Sure they got Troy Percival but they really overpaid for him. The major free agents (like Beltran and Beltre) seem to be treating Detroit as Plan C. Add in the fact that the owner no longer has his beloved hockey team to tinker with this season and you get a mix ripe for a Lowe signing.

2. The Braves. I admit that I hadn't considered the Braves before Sandy mentioned them but it does make a lot of sense. The Braves just lost two of their starters (Ortiz and Wright) and may lose a third if they don't re-sign Byrd. They need a starter, Lowe would love working with Leo Mazzone and plus Lowe is an excellent athlete who I bet would relish the challenge of batting for himself. The Braves make a lot of sense and I would think that 3-years and $21 million would be in their budget.

3. The Red Sox. Don't forget the fact that if Lowe gets no suitable offers - he can always fall back on arbitration and a one-year deal with the Sox. If $7 million per year is the best offer they get - Scott Boras may try to bleed the Red Sox for $9 million in a one-year deal. That's what he did last year with Kevin Millwood and the Phillies. (Albeit that was a little different since the Phillies had offered a 3-year deal for $30 million while the Sox aren't offering Lowe any multi-year deals anymore but then again - Millwood wasn't a playoff hero like Lowe.)

Lowe isn't going to be a quick signing. He probably won't even be much in the news until the day he has to accept arbitration. Personally, I wouldn't mind the Sox bringing back Lowe for another year. His post-season heroics should have earned him at least that much. Plus the devil you know is almost guaranteed to give you 200 innings and you can't say that about the devil you don't know.

Anyway - the above are my thoughts on Derek Lowe.

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