Rafael Palmeiro vs. Dwight Evans

I've had two thoughts about Rafael Palmeiro that I just needed to get off my chest.

First - I wonder if the Orioles have put him on waivers and I wonder if anyone would claim him. Is there any team out there that is so desperate for a first baseman or a big bat that they would touch him with a thirteen-foot pole? I can't think of any.

Secondly, I can't help but think that without steroids - Palmeiro's production is no better than Dwight Evans (without the superior defense).

Let's assume that Palmeiro had talent to play at the top levels of baseball and lets assume that Palmeiro naturally has a constitution that would tend to keep him healthy in a normal course of a MLB career. Let's also assume that Palmeiro started taking steroids in 1992 when Jose Canseco joined the Rangers but the effects of steroids didn't show up until the following full season (Canseco was only with Texas for 22 games in 1992).

If you looked at the stats for Palmeiro for his first seven seasons (up to age 27) you would see the following production:

Palmeiro - 886 G / 3270 AB / 968 H / 95 HR / 34.42 AB per 1 HR

If you looked at what Dwight Evans accomplished up to his first 8 seasons (up to age 27) you would see the following production:

Evans - 916 G / 2931 AB / 765 H / 110 HR / 26.65 AB per 1 HR

Very similar numbers - don't you agree? Assuming similar longevity (and it should be noted that Evans always kept himself in tip-top shape) then Palmeiro should have been on a career track to have more hits but fewer HR than Evans. Yet we all know that Palmeiro instead went on to hit 3,000 hits and is closing in on 600 HR. If I was Evans - I would be a bit pissed off about this.

Consider the following:

- Evans got better as he got older. His top 5 seasons for AB and hits came after age 27.
- Evans hit 275 HR after age 27 - including his top 5 finishes - but his HR per AB only increased slightly to 22.05 AB per 1 HR
- Evans last real productive season came at age 37 and by the time he was 40 - he was out of baseball.
- Palmeiro has hits 474 HR since his age 27 season and his AB's per HR dropped to 13.94 AB per 1 HR. That's insane to think this was accomplished without steroids.

If Palmeiro didn't get caught then he would have made it into the Hall of Fame and Dwight Evans and his 385 HR and 7 Gold Gloves would have been made a fool of in the voting.