Red Sox vs. Angels

Tonight the Angels visit Fenway for the first of three games. Some are calling this a playoff preview but personally I don't see the Angels making the playoffs. I see the A's taking the West and the Indians (or Yankees maybe) taking the Wild Card.

The Angels send John Lackey to the hill tonight. This season he's 11-5 with a 3.45 ERA but in his one start against the Sox (in Anaheim) he went 6 innings giving up 9 hits and 3 runs (it could have been much worse as the Sox were hitting at a .346 clip against him). In his career Lackey is 0-2 in 3 starts at Fenway. He's simply been awful against the Sox at Fenway allowing the Sox to hit .391 against him. His ERA in those three Fenway starts is 10.13.

The Sox counter with Tim Wakefield who is 14-10 with a 4.41 ERA for the season. In August Wakefield went 5-1 but his ERA was 5.18. However, for his career Wakefield has always been at his worst in August (4.98 career ERA for the month) but has been very good as the weather cools (career 3.81 ERA in September). Tonight should be clear, cool and breezey at Fenway. In other words - excellent conditions for Wakefield's knuckleball.

The key to this game may be Johnny Damon. He sat out yesterday with a bruised shoulder. He may play but how well? He's banged up with a bum shoulder and a sore hand. If he's the Johnny Damon of the first half of the season - this game is in the bag for the Sox.

The line on the game right now is Red Sox (-$140) / Angels (+$120). As your betting advisor - I say take the Sox.