Coco Crisp for Marte and Mota

The rumors are rife about a deal between the Red Sox and Indians that would send Coco Crisp and a prospect from the Indians for highly touted 3rd base prospect Andy Marte, reliever Guillermo Mota and a prospect from the Red Sox.

Coco Crisp would really fill the hole in centerfield and as a bonus he's young (26) and would be under control by the Red Sox contract wise until 2009. He'd be an instant fan favorite. By midseason people could be asking "Johnny who?"

The big piece the Sox would be giving up is Andy Marte, who is currently rated the 8th best prospect in baseball by many Internet sites and who some people have projected to be the next David Wright. I would feel awful if the Red Sox gave up on the next David Wright but there's no guarantee that Marte will be a success. The opposite actually probably has a greater chance of being true.

Nobody knows what Marte will end up doing at the big league level but one thing we can do is look at past history. Here are how 3rd baseman drafted in the first round between 1990 and 2000 have done in MLB (I'm figuring this is a good way to look at other highly thought of 3rd base prospects). I'm simply dividing them into successes or F&J categories (success being guys with proven success and F&J being flotsam and jetsam).

Success
Chipper Jones (#1 1990 by Braves)
Alex Rodriguez (#1 1993 by Seattle)
Eric Chavez (#10 in 1996 by Oakland)
Troy Glaus (#3 in 1997 by Angels)

F&J
Phil Nevin (#1 1992 by Astros)
Calvin Murray (#7 1992 by Giants)
Eddie Pearson (#24 1992 by White Sox)
Tony Wilson (#4 in 1994 by Brewers)
Jeff Liefer (#25 in 1995 by White Sox)
Sean Burroughs (#9 in 1998 by Padres)
Tony Torcato (#19 in 1998 by Giants)
Alex Rios (#19 in 1999 by Blue Jays)
Scott Thorman (#30 in 2000 by Braves)
Damian Rolls (#23 in 1996 by Dodgers)

Over 70% of the 3rd basemen taken in the first round between 1990 and 2000 ended up being pretty much busts.

Consider that Marte was pretty much a flop in his big league debut going .140 BA / .227 OBP / .438 OPS with no HR in 57 AB. Compare that to David Wright (just a year older) who was a smashing success when he came up to the bigs - going .293 BA / .332 OBP / .857 OPS with 14 HR in 263 AB. Of the four guys I list as successes above - only Troy Glaus and Alex Rodriguez struggled as bad as Marte in their original big league tastes.

I should note that A-Rod is on this list only because he now plays 3rd (he was drafted as a short stop and would be playing short for any other team in the league). I should also note that he first came up to the bigs when he was 17. By the time he was 20-years old he was a phenom.

Glaus also struggled when he came up but has since become an all-star caliber player. I have to say that I would trade a young Troy Glaus (career 120 OPS+) for the promise of Coco Crisp (who had an OPS+ of 119 last season). Given that the Sox have an extreme need at center - I'd have no problem trading Marte for Crisp even if I knew he'd put up Troy Glaus type numbers.

When you consider that both Sean Burroughs and Phil Nevin were at one time more highly thought of than Marte - I have to say that the risk outweighs the reward for the Red Sox in this deal. You also have to consider that Trot Nixon is in the last year of his deal and Crisp could easily be moved over to right field (the spacious right field at Fenway demands a defender with CF skills) then this deal really makes sense from the Red Sox perspective.

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