Presidential Odds

I checked the betting line on the Presidental election tonight and my reaction to the line was literally, "Holy Crap!"

The betting line now stands at Bush -$175 and Kerry at +$135. (This means that you would have to risk $175 to win $100 betting on Bush or risk just $100 to win $135 betting on Kerry).

To understand why I had a "Holy Crap!" reaction consider:

- just two days ago (August 30th) the line had jumped to Bush -$155 and Kerry +$115

- just two days before that (August 28th) the line had jumped to Bush -$145 and Kerry +$105

After the DNC - the betting line was dead even at -$120 for both Kerry and Bush (bet $120 to win $100 with $20 vig going to the house). About two and a half weeks ago Bush pulled slighly ahead at -$130 to -$110 for Kerry.

The movement in the line has been incredible - especially given the fact that Bush has yet to give his speech at the RNC. This movement in the betting line represents a lot of money being bet on Bush. Let me repeat that - this movement in the betting line represents a lot of money being bet on Bush. This isn't talking heads saying one thing on TV but knowing something else in their hearts. This is people putting their money where their mouths are.

For the record I have been following the odds via off-shore casinos like Bodog.com (scroll to bottom of page) but all of the off-shore and British bookmaker lines I have checked have been consistent.