Championship Sunday NFL Picks

It's down to the final four. Just two more games until we have a Super Bowl Champion. I'm so excited and I just can't hide it. I'm about to lose control and I think I like it. On to the picks.

Atlanta at Philadelphia

The line opened with the Eagles giving 5 points. It went to 5.5 mid-week and it is now at Eagles giving 6.

When I first saw the line I thought the Falcons were the pick. I'm a big believer in sticking with first impressions but here I'm going to make an exception. Let me explain my thinking.

Both teams have excellent defenses. They're about equal as far as I'm concerned.

Both teams have MVP caliber quarterbacks but here I was giving the edge to Atlanta. Face it - if the draft was tomorrow Michael Vick gets picked ahead of Donovan McNabb.

My last impression of Vick was of him looking great against the Rams but that was against the Rams and it was inside at the Georgia Dome. Tomorrow's game is outside against the much tougher Iggle defense. Being against the Eagle D is key but playing outside is keyer (hey - just trying to add a word to the lexicon).

It will be cold. The ground will be frozen and slick and there may even be some snow flurries remaining from today's big storm (at the very least the wind will whip snow from the stands and sidelines onto the field). These kinds of conditions do not favor the quick-muscle twitch QB's. These conditions are perfect for bottling up the lightning in a bottle Michael Vick. These conditions are much better for the home town Donovan McNabb.

With Vick neutralized - what do the Falcons have left? Nothing. Thus the change of heart.

Take the Eagles and give the six points.

New England at Pittsburgh

The line for this game has the visiting Patriots giving the 16-1 Steelers 3 points. Incredible.

This game is being touted as the "game of the year" and one of the "all-time great matchups". All the angles on this game are being examined. Except for the two angles I really want to hear about.

I'm from Massachusetts and I want to read about how my Senators feel about this game.

First Ted Kennedy. This guy couldn't pronounce Barack Obama - somebody has to stick a microphone in his face and ask him to pronounce Ben Roethlisberger or Troy Polamalu. Kennedy couldn't even handle Sammy Sosa (Sammy Soooo-zah). I'd chip in $50 to make this happen. Secondly, Mary Jo Kopechne was from Pennsylvania and many people there still haven't forgotten. Senator - are you attending the game?

Then we have John Kerry who is married to Teresa Heinz-Kerry. Did I mention that Heinz Field is named after the Heinz family? Will Teresa let John into the family box only if he roots for the Steelers? (And yes - the mild double entendre was intentional - if I was forced into a mental picture of John and Teresa getting busy then everyone should feel that pain).

Now onto the game.

In my opinion the teams are very evenly matched. The defenses are about equal. The running games for both teams are about equal. The Patriots have the clear edge at QB but that could be cancelled out by the Steelers home field advantage and the crowd factor. That leaves two decisive factors.

First - head coach. With a win Bill Belichick ties Vince Lombardi for the best playoff record in history. On the other hand - Bill Cowher is trying to avoid being labeled as a coach who can't handle the pressure of the big game. Ask yourself - if you could choose a head coach for your team - do you take Cowher or Belichick? Advantage Patriots.

Secondly - with good defenses come red zone stops and field goal attempts. Both teams have good defenses - so I expect about 6-10 field goal attempts for the game and who has the best bad weather field goal kicker in NFL history? Adam Vinatieri will most likely be the difference in this game. Big advantage for the Patriots.

One last observation about the game. I can't tell you how lame I think the "Terrible Towels" are. What's terrible about a towel? I see all those Pittsburgh fans waving those yellow towels and I don't think "what great fans" - I think "look at the lemmings".

Take the Patriots and give the 3 points.

Bonus Pick

The over for the Atlanta/Philly game is 37 and the over for the Patriots/Steelers game is 35. These are low numbers but given the weather conditions and the quality defenses involved. The under may be a good choice.

Now I know that one of the 10 Commandments of betting football is "Thou Shall Not Tease" but I'm recommending you tease the unders for both games. The extra six points bumps the unders up to 43 and 41 respectively and I think that's enough buffer for the teased unders to come in.

Make it so.