Bush's Three Pronged Plan of Attack

President Bush will win the November election and this is how I believe he plans to do it:

1. Make Kerry deal with attacks from all three sides - Left, Right and Center
2. Erode Kerry's base
3. Stay above the fray

Let's take a look at each in turn.

1. Make Kerry deal with attacks from all three sides - Left, Right and Center

Bush will have to handle the attacks from the right himself. He will have ads talking about Kerry's record in the Senate where he voted against all the weapon systems the military is now using. Kerry voted to cut Intelligence spending and had an awful attendance record when he sat on the Senate Intelligence Committee.

Many people think Bush needs to get Kerry to release his military records to really do him harm but it is the attendance records from the closed door Intelligence meetings that Bush really wants released. And what possible reason can Kerry give for not releasing those records? If Kerry stonewalls releasing those records - then he will have made another big strategic error. You can be sure that a Bush person will come out and say something like, "Hey all we're asking is to know how much effort John Kerry puts into his job. He says he wants to run on his record but how can the voters judge him on his record when he won't release them?"

If the records are released and they show that Kerry only attended one-in-four meetings then he loses all rights to complain about any intelligence failures on the part of the current administration. Bigtime bonus if Karl Rove and crew can place Kerry out wind-surfing or skiing instead of attending important closed door Intelligence Committee meetings.

In order to combat these attacks - Kerry will have to move more towards the center. This is where the attacks from the Left come in.

Some of the attacks will be done under the radar by Bush folks but the main brunt of the attacks will come from the Left itself.

Kerry will have to show greater commitment to Iraq and he will have to say something like, "We will be in Iraq for however long it takes." Even if it means keeping the troops there as long as we have kept them in Korea? "Well..ummm..yes - whatever it takes."

This will not make the part of the Left that wants the troops home from Iraq right away very happy. They'll be thinking that Howard Dean would have brought the troops home and that Kerry is no George McGovern.

Kerry will also have to answer questions about the Kyoto Accords and the ICC. Mr. Kerry if elected President - will you sign the US up to the Kyoto Accords? (Watch the waffling begin on this one. Kerry voted against the Accords in the Senate and any sane person knows that the whole thing is a sham but the Left loves Kyoto - it has become a magic word among the Prius driving crowd.) Mr. Kerry - what about the ICC? If elected - will you put the US under the jurisdiction of the ICC? (Major fireworks here - Kerry knows he can't do that. If he says "Yes" he gets to keep the Left but lose the rest of the country.)

So as Kerry starts distancing himself from the Left to move to the Center - look for the voice of the Left to start calling out to him, "My Kerry, my Kerry - why have you abandoned us?" Look for lines of questioning from Lefty organizations to get down-right pissy as it is understood that Kerry is distancing himself from Lefty concerns.

Attacks from the Center will come two ways - on taxes and on the Swift Boat Vet allegations.

Many people have mistakenly thought the Swift Boat ads are attacks from the right but they are not. Many of the Swift Boat guys are Democrats but no matter what their party affiliation - they all hate John Kerry. These guys are not stopping their ads and when the 527 deadline passes - the Swift Boat guys will still have a book tour to do. Books stores literally cannot keep Unfit for Command on the shelves and the delivery of new books should nicely coincide with the time TV ads have to be pulled from the airways. At some point Kerry will have to answer their allegations especially since the next ad (my radar tells me) will come out and call Kerry a traitor for dealing with the North Vietnamese in Paris while still a Naval officer.

As far as taxes are concerned - Kerry has been promising the moon so far in his campaign. Soon he will have to explain how he plans to pay for it all. Union guys will begin to think, "Wait - this guy betrayed his country and he wants to raise my taxes?"

2. Erode Kerry's base

Bush understands that the Left will never be openly for him. What he hopes to accomplish is one of two things - generate a Cartman like, "Screw you guys - I'm going home" response (or in this case "staying home" as in not bothering to vote) or get some secret voters - people who when it comes to the moment of truth of voting for Kerry just can't pull the lever in good conscience.

The feeling of "Anyone But Bush" ABB on the Left is strong but the feeling of "I really want to vote for John Kerry" is very weak. As Kerry moves away from Liberal positions to more moderate positions - the far Left will start to wonder "Hey is it too late to get someone else?" and "Hey - what about Hillary?"

I would liken what is going to happen to taking a child out to dinner. At first the child is very excited about going out to a restaurant. Then when it comes time to order - he gets it in his head that he wants lobster. "No you can't have lobster." "Why not?" "It's not on the children's menu." "But they have lobster - I can see the people at the next table - they have lobster." "You can't have lobster! Look there were 9 choices on the children's menu and I've narrowed it down to just one choice - grilled cheese." "But I really don't like grilled cheese." "It's grilled cheese or nothing at all." "Fine - I don't want anything. Screw you dad - I'm going home."

Start listening for mention of Hillary. Some people may start to think "Screw John Kerry - I want Hillary in 4-years instead."

3. Stay above the fray

President Bush has done a good job of staying above the fray in the Swift Boat controversy. Now he has condemned their ads and the ads of all the 527 folks and is waiting for Kerry to do the same. Kerry really can't distance himself too far from his 527's because he's relying on their advertising. Without their advertising - he's sunk (unless the wife writes a big check).

Ads attacking Bush will continue and Bush will then pull out his big gun. He will either have a commercial by John McCain (author of the campaign finance law that is bastardized by 527's) condemning the ads and Kerry for not distancing himself from them or even better McCain will do it from the floor of the RNC where his message of "Shame on you" will get free airtime.

You also know that Kerry (or maybe Theresa) will have at least one Howard Dean moment as the pressure begins to mount. Just as surely - you know that Bush will keep himself above the fray. The contrast will become very striking to the undecided voter.

So that is how I see the election playing out.

Let's see if I'm right.