Monday, August 30, 2004

Presidential Odds

Forget the polls - if you want evidence of a Kerry campaign meltdown - look at the betting odds on the Presidential race. President Bush is now a substantial favorite to win re-election. Right now the betting line stands at Bush -$155 and Kerry +$115. (This means that you would have to risk $155 on Bush to win $100 or risk just $100 to win $15 on Kerry.) On Saturday the line jumped to Bush -$145 and Kerry +$105. This is some serious movement in the betting line.

After the DNC - the betting line was dead even at -$120 for both Kerry and Bush (bet $120 to win $100 with $20 vig going to the house). About two weeks ago Bush pulled slighly ahead at -$130 to -$110 for Kerry. This latest line represents a big jump in the odds.

For the record I have been following the odds via off-shore casinos like (scroll to bottom of page) but all of the lines I have checked have been consistent.

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