Baseball HOF Pet Peeve

Fred McGriff is approaching 500 HR and some people are speculating that he may be the first person to reach the 500 HR mark that doesn't get elected to the HOF.

These people feel that the 500 mark has been cheapened by the increase in HR in recent years. Yet these same folks will hold that the 3,000 hit mark is sacrosanct and that ANYONE who is able to reach 3,000 hits must be deserving of induction. I call BS on this line of thinking.

There have been 25 players to have 3,000 or more hits. There have been only 19 players to reach 500 HR. By definition - a 500 HR hitter is rarer in the history of baseball than a player with 3,000 hits. Of the people in the top 25 on the all-time hits list - 12 have played in MLB the past 25 years (48%). Only 7 of the players to reach the 500 HR mark have done so in the past 25 years (37%).

There are 13 active players who are at least two-thirds of the way to 500 HR (330 or more). Of these 13 players - two can be said to have absolutely no shot at reaching 500 (Andres Galarraga who has 398 and is 42 years old just coming off a battle against cancer and Ellis Burks who has 351 but is 38 years old and whose body is broken down). That means 11 players with a shot to reach 500 in the near future (and this is including Larry Walker who has 351).

The two-thirds mark for 3,000 hits is 1,980. Currently there are 24 active players with at least 1,980 hits. Of this 24 - I think we can safely again take away Galarraga and Burks. That means that there are more than double the number of active players two-thirds the way to 3,000 hits than two-thirds the way to 500 HR and yet it is somehow the 500 HR mark that is now easier to achieve?

Of the 11 players with a realistic shot at 500 HR - I would classify 7 as very likely to make it (A-Rod, Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, Frank Thomas, Jeff Bagwell, Fred McGriff and Junior Griffey). That would bring the number of players in the 500 HR club to 26. (And I would ask you to take a moment to consider the caliber of player I just named as probable to join the 500 HR club. We are talking all-time greats here.)

Of the 22 active players who are at least two-thirds the way to 3,000 - I would classify 3 as very probable (Palmeiro, Bonds and Sosa). That would bring the number of players with 3,000 hits up to 28 (so players with 500 HR would still be fewer and rarer than 3,000 hit players).

OPS+ is a good stat to use when comparing players from different eras and 19 of the projected 26 members of the 500 HR club are in the top 50 OPS+ of all-time (including 5 of the six players projected to join the 500 HR club). Only 8 members of the 3,000 hit club made the top 50 in OPS+. You could easily say that the top 50 players in OPS+ represent the greatest hitters of all-time (just look at the list) and most of the 500 HR club makes that list while most of the 3,000 hit club does not. (And I think that speaks volumes about any debate about 500 HR vs. 3,000 hits.)

Now please note that this rant is not on whether Fred McGriff is a HOF player - it is just on the hypocrisy of people who would belittle the achievement of 500 HR and yet still believe that 3,000 hits is some sort of Holy Grail.