The Seattle Effect

Now that Seattle has traded Freddy Garcia - many people may expect that the Mariners to no longer be a factor in the American League playoff races. I think the opposite may be true. Don't get me wrong - I'm not saying that Seattle will make a run at the AL West or Wildcard spots but I am saying that they may be surprisingly improved for the final three-fifths of the season.

Consider the following:

- The Mariners just greatly improved the offense from the catcher's position with the acquisition of Miquel Olivo. Olivo averages a HR every 20 AB this season while Ben Davis averaged a HR every 42 AB in his career. Dan Wilson - the other Seattle catcher has just 2 HR and 24 RBI in 183 AB this year (Olivo 5 more HR and 2 more RBI in 42 fewer AB). The pressure will be on to play the kids so Dan Wilson - bench. Bench - Dan Wilson. This actually greatly helps the Mariners chances to win games.

- The Mariners also got Jeremy Reed in the deal. Reed may be able to step in and play every day for the Mariners in centerfield. Reed is one of the top prospects in all of baseball and I would think that he would easily replace the .260 / 3 HR / 22 RBI production that they have gotten from Randy Winn. (Or at the very least - maybe the presence of Reed lights a fire under Wynn's ass.) Let's be blunt - Wynn's a 30-year old stiff. Maybe the next move is for the Mariners to pawn him off on someone *cough*Yankees*cough* who need back-up help in centerfield.

- The Mariners big offensive guns of Ichiro, Brett Boone and Edgar Martinez have greatly underperformed this year. These guys are too good for the slumps to all continue and once one gets hot - at least one other will be sure to follow.

- Joel Pineiro and Gil Meche have been pretty bad this year and they are bound to improve.

- Many people are speculating that Jamie Moyer is the next to go but I disagree. Moyer is a bargain at his salary of $6.5 million and at most he could cost the Mariners $7.5 million for 2005 if he reaches all of his incentives. That's a bargain. Factor in that Moyer is just 5 wins away from matching Randy Johnson as the Mariners all-time wins leader and it spells out NO Trade (oh speaking of "no trade" - as a 10/5 guy - Moyer could veto any trade anyway). Why would the Mariners trade a guy who can bring in the fans during a meaningless season? "Come see Jamie Moyer become the all-time leader in wins!" I can see the banners now.

The Mariners will also win more games for another simple reason. They can't possibly do any worse.

So far the Mariners have been an abysmal 6-16 against the West and 6-12 against the East. More wins against the East and West will make it harder on the teams vying for the Wildcard (moreso on teams from the West - only 5 games against the Red Sox and 3 against the Yankees vs. 7 against Texas, 12 against Oakland and 14 against the Angels).

Say hello to the new Mariners. Now a major factor in the AL playoff races.