Saturday, July 09, 2005

The State of the Red Sox

This week has seen a series of tempests in teacups in Red Sox Nation and I just wanted to get my $.02 in on what it all really means.

Let me start with Curt Schilling going to the bullpen.

If you listen carefully to Terry Francona you never would have heard him say that Schilling was going to be "the closer" - just that he was going to the bullpen. Let's look at this logically.

Word is that Schilling isn't in the game shape to do anything more than 5 innings. If that is the case then all the current starters (Clement, Wakefield, Arroyo, Miller and Wells) are better options to stay in the rotation. Keith Foulke going on the DL opened a roster spot on the pitching staff and 2 innings of Schilling is much better than 2 innings from any of the other options the Red Sox would have had to fill Foulke's roster spot.

If Schilling went right into the starting rotation and stunk the first couple of times out - you can be sure there would have been grumbling about how Arroyo never should have been bumped from the rotation for a less than healthy Schilling.

Now if you are going to have a fireballing bulldog in the bullpen like Schilling - then of course it makes sense to use him in a closing role. I say "a" closing role instead of "the" closing role because Francona probably won't be using Schilling on back-to-back games. This means that Mike Timlin will also be closing and this is good for Timlin because he's really a setup man and in the past the pressure of closing has gotten to him. There is a lot less pressure in being an occasional closer than being THE closer.

Once Schilling gets his strength back - he'll be moved back to the rotation. Now I'm guessing this will happen about mid-August which also happens to be the time-frame for Keith Foulke's return. When Foulke returns - look for Timlin to maintain at least some of the closing responsibilities (if not all - Foulke may start off in a set-up role) until Foulke is 100%.

It should be noted that the bullpen has been THE weakspot for the team this year and it should also be noted that Matt Mantei is probably gone for the year. This move of Schilling to the bullpen makes a tremendous amount of sense.

Jay Payton never should have left the Rockies. He signed with the Padres and was exposed as just a so-so player. However, in Payton's mind he's one of the better outfielders in baseball. Getting traded to Oakland will be a slap of reality for Payton. If he was going to be a problem - then Theo and the front office acted correctly in jettisoning Payton immediately.

By trading Payton - the Red Sox will supposedly get Chad Bradford in return. Bradford is coming off the DL for a back injury but he's good insurance against Alan Embree melting down. I'd look for Bradford to start off at Pawtucket for rehab.

Kevin Millar isn't worth the trouble and I have no doubt that Theo Epstein has been trying to trade him. Peter Gammons reported that Millar requested a trade but Millar is now denying this and Theo Epstein is basically giving a "no-comment" when asked. My guess is that Millar's agent asked for the trade (giving Millar his deniability) and Theo is too classy to call Millar on the carpet for this purely selfish move. I'm also guessing that Theo hasn't found much market for the big-talking, no-power, pudgy firstbaseman. For the 1,000th time - give Millar's playing time to Kevin Youkilis.

Theo Epstein did make a trade this week - sending Ramon Vazquez to the Indians for Alex Cora. This is an excellent upgrade for the Red Sox. Cora is an excellent defensive replacement for both short and 2nd (so good in fact that Bellhorn's job may be in jeopardy). The Indians won't use Vazquez - this was just a salary dump on their part.

Johnny Damon has made it clear that he's an idiot. But he's playing the best centerfield of anyone in the AL. Damon wants to be in Boston but he won't do any better than the 4-year $40 million deal Varitek got. If he wants more - then he'll be playing elsewhere next year. (Also don't discount the possibility that Damon injures himself with his reckless style and really hurts his market value to the point he accepts arbitration from the Red Sox.) I think if Millar is jettisoned - then Damon doesn't get into any further problems with his mouth this year.

I think the person really being screwed here is Terry Francona. You know he wanted clement on the All-Star roster but his hands were tied by MLB. Francona is taking heat for just about everything and very little of it is deserved. I credit Francona for handling things within the clubhouse and this winter we'll probably learn the real story of what he had to put up with.

The Red Sox have in no way sewed up a playoff spot. They are just 4 games up in the AL East and just 1.5 up over the top Wild Card team. Theo Epstein can't and won't stand pat during the trading deadline.

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